UEFA Europa League · Soccer · Jul 16, 2026 19:30 CEST · avg book margin 6.9%
Derry CityvsCSKA Sofia
Asian handicap: SX.bet pricing 6.5% soft to sharp consensus, 25 hours to kickoff
What happened: Final score: 1–2. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-1.9% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 70 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 494 live signals across 185 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 25.3 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The Asian handicap for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia (UEFA Europa League) has split the market with 25 hours remaining. SX.bet is quoting decimal odds of 2.13 on one side—sitting 6.5% above where independent sharp operators have clustered. This mispricing is actionable now; the gap persists as this page updates.
A single quote has drifted 2.5 standard deviations from the broader market consensus—a statistically significant gap that transcends ordinary price variation.
Five independent sharp sources have converged on the consensus line, anchoring the fair price to multiple independent reads rather than one operator's read.
Three distinct patterns from the Playbook overlap with this trade structure. The strongest variant has realized +8.2% on closed positions.
Bets of this shape—soccer Asian handicap at mid-range odds—have returned +1.6% ROI across 1547 resolved trades in the historical record.
Mispricings in this segment typically persist for roughly 11 hours before convergence tightens the gap.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
· UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe
@ 1.98
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Matchbook
2.10
+9.2%
BetOnline
1.98
+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag
1.98
+2.9%
Betr AU
1.93
+0.1%
BC.Game
1.91
-0.8%
betplay
1.91
-0.8%
rivalry
1.91
-0.8%
betwhale
1.91
-0.8%
Jazz Sports
1.91
-0.8%
Coolbet
1.90
-1.2%
SX.bet
1.88
-2.4%
betmania
1.88
-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Derry City vs CSKA Sofia
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 16, 2026 19:41 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).