Implied Probability Calculator
Turn any price into the win probability it implies — your break-even rate — and turn a probability back into fair odds.
Odds → implied probability
Implied probability
60.00%
Break-even win rate
60.0%
Decimal odds
1.67
Probability → fair odds
Fair decimal
2.50
Fair American
+150
Omenizer removes the vig for you and flags every price offering more than the fair probability.
See live value bets →Worked examples
- • −150: decimal 1.667, implied probability = 1 ÷ 1.667 = 60%. You must win 60% of −150 bets just to break even.
- • +250: decimal 3.50, implied = 1 ÷ 3.50 = 28.6%. If you think the real chance is 33%, that’s a value bet.
- • 40% → fair odds: 1 ÷ 0.40 = decimal 2.50, i.e. +150. Any price longer than +150 on a true 40% shot is +EV.
Odds → implied probability reference
| American | Decimal | Implied / break-even |
|---|---|---|
| +500 | 6.00 | 16.7% |
| +300 | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| +200 | 3.00 | 33.3% |
| +150 | 2.50 | 40.0% |
| +100 | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| −110 | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| −150 | 1.67 | 60.0% |
| −200 | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| −300 | 1.33 | 75.0% |
| −500 | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| −1000 | 1.10 | 90.9% |
FAQ
- What is implied probability in betting?
- The probability of an outcome implied by its odds: implied % = 1 / decimal odds. −200 implies 66.7%, +150 implies 40%. It’s also your break-even win rate at that price.
- Does implied probability include the vig?
- Yes. A single price’s implied probability includes the bookmaker margin, so across all outcomes the total is over 100%. Remove the vig to get the fair probability.
- How do I convert probability to odds?
- Fair decimal odds = 1 / probability. A 40% chance is fair at decimal 2.50 (+150). Use the reverse panel below.
- What is break-even win rate?
- The percentage of bets you must win at a given price just to break even — it equals the implied probability. Beat it and you profit.
- Implied vs. true probability — what’s the difference?
- Implied probability comes straight from the price and includes the bookmaker margin. True (fair) probability is what you get after removing the vig from a sharp market. If your estimate of the true probability is higher than a book’s implied probability, that’s a value bet.
- How do I use implied probability to find value?
- Convert a price to its implied probability, then compare it to your own honest estimate of the outcome’s chance. If you think the real probability is higher than the implied, the price is offering positive expected value.
- Can implied probabilities add up to more than 100%?
- Yes — across all outcomes of a market they always exceed 100%, and the excess is the vig. A −110/−110 two-way sums to ~104.8%; that 4.8% is the bookmaker’s built-in edge.
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Built by the team behind Omenizer’s real-time fair-odds engine — the same devigging and closing-line-value math that powers our live value-bet feed. Last updated July 2026.
Educational tool only. A single price’s implied probability includes the bookmaker margin.