Implied Probability Calculator
Turn any price into the win probability it implies — your break-even rate — and turn a probability back into fair odds.
Odds → implied probability
Implied probability
60.00%
Break-even win rate
60.0%
Decimal odds
1.67
Probability → fair odds
Fair decimal
2.50
Fair American
+150
Omenizer removes the vig for you and flags every price offering more than the fair probability.
See live value bets →FAQ
- What is implied probability in betting?
- The probability of an outcome implied by its odds: implied % = 1 / decimal odds. −200 implies 66.7%, +150 implies 40%. It’s also your break-even win rate at that price.
- Does implied probability include the vig?
- Yes. A single price’s implied probability includes the bookmaker margin, so across all outcomes the total is over 100%. Remove the vig to get the fair probability.
- How do I convert probability to odds?
- Fair decimal odds = 1 / probability. A 40% chance is fair at decimal 2.50 (+150). Use the reverse panel below.
- What is break-even win rate?
- The percentage of bets you must win at a given price just to break even — it equals the implied probability. Beat it and you profit.
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Built by the team behind Omenizer’s real-time fair-odds engine — the same devigging and closing-line-value math that powers our live value-bet feed. Last updated July 2026.
Educational tool only. A single price’s implied probability includes the bookmaker margin.