What is closing line value?

CLV measures whether the price you took was better than the closing price for the same selection. Positive CLV means the closing line implied a higher probability than the price you originally took.

How do you calculate CLV?

Convert both prices to implied probability (1 / decimal odds), then subtract: closing probability − bet probability. The result is your CLV in probability points.

Does positive CLV guarantee profit?

No. Positive CLV is the strongest leading indicator of good process, but any single bet can still lose due to variance.

Why compare CLV by market type?

+2% CLV in a deep, efficient market is not the same as +2% in a thin one. Omenizer benchmarks your CLV against measured diagnostics for the specific market.

CLV Calculator

Find out if you beat the closing line — then see how your CLV stacks up against what actually holds up in that market, measured across thousands of settled Omenizer signals.

Your oddsClosing oddsOdds format

e.g. +150 or -110

+5.45 ptsclosing line value · +12.00% relative

You beat the closing line.

Your implied probability40.00%

Closing implied probability45.45%

How good is that, really?

A CLV number only means something relative to its market. Pick the market to benchmark yours against Omenizer’s measured diagnostics.

MarketSport (optional)

Not enough public data yet to benchmark this market reliably.

The full read on a bet like this

Example

CLV is one signal. Here’s everything Omenizer scores before backing a Soccer moneyline 3-way bet — the read you’d get on every bet you’re weighing.

Sample Match — Soccer

moneyline 3-way

Omen Score

BETPrime

Why this bet · illustrative

Expected value

+7.4%

Fair probability

52.4%

Implied probability

48.8%

Signal confidence

82 / 100

Market state

Strong sharp consensus

Sharp books

Kelly stake

1.8% bankroll

Edge vs break-even

+3.6 pts

Odds by bookmaker

DraftKingsBest	+105	+7.4%
FanDuel	+100	+4.8%
BetMGM	−115	−2.0%
Sharp price (ref)	−110	—

Risk & profitability

Risk class

Core

Expected win rate

~52%

Bets to expect

~1 in 2

Variance

Normal

Past performance · Soccer moneyline 3-way

illustrative

Reliability

Good

Beat-close rate

47%

Median CLV

+0.4%

Sample

Large

Cumulative units (illustrative)

That’s the full edge analysis — Omen Score, class, fair price, the best book, risk profile, and a measured track record — on every bet you’re considering. Subscribe and make the most informed bets in the market. Beat the naive money.

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How CLV is calculated

bet_prob     = 1 / bet_decimal
closing_prob = 1 / closing_decimal
clv_points   = closing_prob - bet_prob
clv_relative = clv_points / closing_prob

Worked example. Your +150 (decimal 2.50 → 40.00%) vs a +120 close (decimal 2.20 → 45.45%): CLV = 45.45% − 40.00% = +5.45 points (+12.00% relative). You beat the close.

FAQ

What is closing line value?: CLV measures whether the price you took was better than the closing price for the same selection. Positive CLV means the closing line implied a higher probability than the price you originally took.
How do you calculate CLV?: Convert both prices to implied probability (1 / decimal odds), then subtract: closing probability − bet probability. The result is your CLV in probability points.
Does positive CLV guarantee profit?: No. Positive CLV is the strongest leading indicator of good process, but any single bet can still lose due to variance.
Why compare CLV by market type?: +2% CLV in a deep, efficient market is not the same as +2% in a thin one. Omenizer benchmarks your CLV against measured diagnostics for the specific market.

Educational diagnostic only. This is not betting advice or a guarantee of profit. Odds move quickly, inputs can be wrong, and positive process signals can still lose.