WNBA · Basketball · Jul 14, 2026 11:00 EDT · avg book margin 4.9%

Connecticut SunvsPortland Fire

Jazz Sports lagged 102 minutes on Connecticut Sun moneyline move, leaving a 3% edge on the board

+3% window, 102 min48%54%60% market median Jazz Sports (slowest)

Connecticut Sun's implied win probability jumped from 51% to 56% across the WNBA betting market around 12:45 UTC, roughly 2 hours before the Portland Fire tip. Over 118 bookmakers, the shift happened in under an hour — a speed that signals informed movement, not random noise.

Early responders like 1xBet and 4cx repriced within a minute. The middle of the pack took 41 minutes. Jazz Sports, however, did not catch up for 102 minutes, while Fliff and boomers each needed 82.

That 102-minute delay at Jazz Sports meant bettors could lock in Connecticut Sun at a price roughly 3% better than what the market had settled on, with a 2-point gap still visible when the lag finally closed.

One book was still showing outdated odds hours later. This is where edges live: once the sharp money has shifted and a sportsbook hasn't moved, the stale quote is exactly what real-time market tracking is built to catch.

Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks · WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky @ 2.08
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.9%
Entry edge
+3.5%
Edge near close
+1.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.01
Fair price (no-vig)
2.12
Entry odds
Quality
85/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
2.6%
Recommended stake
3.3%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
BC.Game2.08+3.5%
betplay2.08+3.5%
rivalry2.08+3.5%
betwhale2.08+3.5%
Heritage Sports2.04+1.6%
Betway2.00-0.4%
FanDuel2.00-0.4%
Bet991.95-2.8%
espn-bet1.95-2.8%
theScore1.95-2.8%
DraftKings1.95-2.8%
BetRight1.94-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Connecticut Sun vs Portland Fire is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).