Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer · Jul 15, 2026 12:00 -05 · avg book margin 8.2%

Club LibertadvsTécnico Universitario

Bet105 offers 3.4% overvalue on the 1X2, 4 hours to kickoff

What happened: Final score: 1–0. The edge paid: the recommended side won, returning +1.95 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +25.0% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 4 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Offered at bet1052.95Fair price2.85+3.5% above fair

Omenizer detected 22 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 3.8 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

The 1X2 market for Club Libertad vs Técnico Universitario (Ecuadorian Serie A) has fractured with 4 hours remaining. bet105 is quoting decimal odds of 2.95 on one outcome—sitting 3.4% above where independent sharp operators have clustered. The gap is live and actionable as this story publishes.

The outlier quote has drifted 2.5 standard deviations from the broader market cluster—a statistically meaningful gap that moves well beyond routine price variation.

Three independent sharp sources have converged on the consensus line, anchoring the edge to multiple independent reads rather than a single operator's view.

Six distinct patterns from the Playbook align with this trade structure. The strongest variant has realized +8.0% on closed positions.

Bets in this segment—soccer 1X2 at mid-range odds—have returned +5.3% ROI across 2713 settled trades in the historical record.

Mispricings at this magnitude typically evaporate within roughly 23 hours as the market tightens toward the match.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Club Libertad vs Técnico Universitario is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Jul 16, 2026 02:10 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).