ITF Men · Tennis · Jul 17, 2026 08:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.4%
Lorenzo BocchivsFiliberto Fumagalli
Bocchi–Fumagalli ITF moneyline: DraftKings mispriced at 12.4% — market corrected +7.5% by serve
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 488 live signals across 182 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The moneyline for Lorenzo Bocchi vs Filiberto Fumagalli (ITF Men) carried a pricing inefficiency at DraftKings before the match began. Decimal odds of 2.10 represented a 12.4% departure from sharp consensus, and early action locked in that rate during the live window.
Bocchi won 2–0. The flagged moneyline returned +1.10 units on a unit stake.
What separates edge from luck: the market tightened +7.5% by kickoff, moving toward the backed side. Closing-line value—the standard professionals use to evaluate bets across time—proves pricing was real, not outcome. Individual scorelines are noise; price drift is signal.
Tennis moneylines in this odds band have accumulated +5.5% ROI across 1847 settled signals on the board.
Detection occurs during the live betting window, before first serve—not after play ends. The board surfaces these gaps while the action window remains open.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Lorenzo Bocchi vs Filiberto Fumagalli
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 18, 2026 04:42 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).