Totals market split by 3.4% — sharp consensus points to value with 15 hours remaining
What happened: Final score: 4–5. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.12 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-2.3% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 15 hours after detection before the edge closed.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 15.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
Sportsbooks are divided on whether the Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals total goes over or under — one quoted price sits 3.4% away from where 18 independent sharp operators have clustered. The mispricing is active now, not historical: first pitch is still 15 hours away.
When consensus among sharp sources diverges sharply from retail pricing, the statistical distance signals which side of the market is overvalued. Here, that gap is material enough to flag.
Eighteen separate sharp sources contributed to the consensus line, eliminating the risk that one operator's model is skewing the fair value.
Twelve historical patterns from the Playbook overlap with this trade's profile — the best performer among them returned +14.2% across its closed positions.
Baseball totals bets flagged in this odds range have a documented track record: 1177 resolved signals show +3.2% ROI on aggregate.
Mispricings in this market segment have historically compressed within roughly 20 hours as sharp action corrects the line.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
· MLB · Baseball — flagged side Under 8.5
@ 2.15
79Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
Rec-book consensus only — no sharp anchor.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Hard Rock
2.15
+0.9%
espn-bet
2.10
-1.4%
Hard Rock
2.10
-1.4%
1xBet
2.08
-2.3%
Matchbook
2.08
-2.3%
sport888
2.05
-3.8%
betparx
1.96
-7.9%
Bally Bet
1.96
-7.9%
BetRivers
1.96
-7.9%
PMU
1.83
-14.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.15 odds → 47% implied win probability
47%
Fair win probability
+4.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+8.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 17, 18:51 UTC at 2.25 (+4.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.13 → closing-line value +1.1%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.25 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 18, 2026 04:41 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).