FIFA World Cup · Soccer · Jul 18, 2026 21:00 UTC

🇫🇷 Francevs🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England

France 50% to beat England in sharp odds — draw and England both trail at 24-25%

🇫🇷 France50%Draw24%🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England25%
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
SX BetDraw4.52+4.1%
NorthStar BetsDraw4.50+3.7%
BET99France1.87+3.1%
NovigDraw4.44+2.3%
Tailgate ExchangeDraw4.44+2.3%
Matchbook ExchangeDraw4.43+2.1%
Mise-o-jeuFrance1.84+1.5%
EurobetDraw4.40+1.4%
BetanoFrance1.83+1.1%
Tailgate ExchangeFrance1.83+1.1%
SuperbetFrance1.82+0.4%
Prophet XDraw4.33-0.3%
Prime SportsEngland4.77-0.3%
22betDraw4.31-0.7%
1XBetDraw4.31-0.7%
PlayNowFrance1.80-0.7%
FanDuelDraw4.30-0.9%
BetNationDraw4.30-0.9%
SportsbetDraw4.30-0.9%
UnibetDraw4.30-0.9%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

With two days until kickoff, margin-free pricing puts France's win probability at 50%, while England sits at 25% and a stalemate at 24%. That split reflects where sophisticated money has settled on this matchup.

Two pricing inefficiencies are currently trackable on this fixture. The most pronounced one runs 16.3% wider than the sharp consensus. Edges of this size typically compress before teams take the field.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for France vs England is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).