Swedish Superettan · Soccer · Jul 18, 2026 15:00 UTC

Osters IF–IK Brage draw or away win mispriced at Unibet: 7.0% divergence from sharp consensus 6 hours out

Offered at Unibet3.45Fair price3.22+7.0% above fair

Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
70
Omen Score
+0.8%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Pick: IK Brage @ 3.25 — best price at Unibet
Fits 4 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +7.8% on settled bets
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account

Swedish Superettan matchup Osters IF vs IK Brage has fractured the 1X2 market across operators. Unibet is quoting decimal odds of 3.45 on one outcome—a 7.0% gap above where independent sharp sources have settled on fair value. The edge is active now; kickoff is 6 hours away.

The consensus emerges from 3 separate sharp books, so the underlying fair line reflects multiple independent models rather than a single operator's view.

Four patterns from the historical Playbook align with this signal structure. The strongest of them has posted +7.8% on resolved positions.

Soccer 1X2 bets in this odds range carry a track record: 2735 settled signals show +5.2% ROI across the aggregate.

Mispricings in this market segment have historically compressed within roughly 22 hours as sharp capital moves in and corrects the line.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
FC U Craiova 1948 vs Maxline Vitebsk · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — pick FC U Craiova 1948 @ 2.30
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+3.4%
Entry edge
+13.5%
Edge near close
2.03
Fair price (no-vig)
2.15
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
5
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
2.9%
Recommended stake
10.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+3.1%
Shin
+3.0%
Power
+3.4%
Additive
-7.9%
Worst case
+3.4%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betanything2.30+13.5%
BetUS2.25+11.1%
BetOnline2.25+11.1%
SportsBetting.ag2.25+11.1%
Betmania2.18+7.6%
Betano2.10+3.7%
Bracco2.04+0.7%
Bet1052.03+0.2%
YouWager2.02-0.3%
Jazz Sports2.00-1.3%
Stake1.98-2.2%
Unibet1.98-2.2%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.30 odds → 43% implied win probability
49%
Fair win probability
+8.7% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.3% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Soccer) — +8.0% settled ROI on 40% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.2% settled ROI on 48% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.0% settled ROI on 43% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
Past performance

Based on 108 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+6.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+4.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
83%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +1.0% to +7.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 15, 06:20 UTC at 2.15 (+3.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.03 → closing-line value +2.7%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.15 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Osters IF vs IK Brage is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).