WTA Tour · Tennis · Jul 18, 2026 10:40 UTC · avg book margin 7.9%
Veronika ErjavecvsJulia Grabher
Erjavec-Grabher moneyline at Unibet: 6.8% overpriced versus sharp consensus, 14 hours to serve
What happened: Final score: 0–2. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.24 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-5.9% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 14 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 486 live signals across 183 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 13.8 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
Unibet's moneyline for Veronika Erjavec vs Julia Grabher (WTA Tour) is trading at decimal odds of 2.24—a 6.8% premium over where independent sharp operators have priced the market with 14 hours until play begins. The gap is active now, not historical: the spread exists as long as the odds remain quoted.
The outlier sits 4.6 standard deviations from the field—far enough to rule out ordinary market churn.
Three independent sharp sources anchor the consensus price, meaning the fair value behind this discrepancy rests on multiple operators' independent reads.
Five patterns from our Playbook apply to this match and odds tier, with the strongest showing +8.4% on closed bets.
Tennis moneylines at mid-range odds have posted +5.5% ROI across 1843 resolved bets in our database—signals of this type have settled profitably before.
Mispricing this wide does not linger until first serve: historical data shows comparable tennis edges compress in roughly 12 hours.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Jiri Lehecka vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
· ATP World Tour · Tennis — flagged side Stefanos Tsitsipas
@ 2.69
90Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+4.7%
Shin
+4.1%
Power
+6.0%
Additive
+4.7%
Balanced
-5.4%
Worst case
+6.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
Price is 3.3σ from market consensus.High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betano
2.69
+5.1%
bet105
2.66
+3.9%
SX.bet
2.63
+2.7%
Matchbook
2.63
+2.7%
Prophet X
2.63
+2.7%
Tailgate Exchange
2.63
+2.7%
STN Sports
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange
2.62
+2.3%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
2.62
+2.3%
4cx
2.61
+1.9%
Novig
2.60
+1.6%
Winpot
2.60
+1.6%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.69 odds → 37% implied win probability
39%
Fair win probability
+6.2% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Sep 03, 13:10 UTC at 3.00 (+6.0% edge) → fair price at close 2.63 → closing-line value +7.5%
✅ Settled: WON · +2.00 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Veronika Erjavec vs Julia Grabher
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 18, 2026 14:44 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).