Australian AFL · Australian Football · Jul 18, 2026 20:10 AEST · avg book margin 6.3%

West Coast EaglesvsBrisbane Lions

Eagles 69, Lions 93: market overpriced the total at 1.88 — closing line confirmed the edge

Offered at Sportsbet1.88Fair price1.60+17.3% above fair

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

The totals market for West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions (Australian AFL) carried a mispricing before the opening bounce. At Sportsbet, one side quoted decimal odds of 1.88—a 17.3% premium over the sharp consensus. The board caught it live, and early action capitalized on the posted rate.

Result: 69–93. The backed total cashed for +0.88 units per unit wagered.

The measurable signal: by kickoff, pricing had shifted toward the flagged side by +26.4%. Closing-line value is how professionals separate true edges from noise, because match outcomes cluster around chance while market movement reveals real conviction.

This report runs on the same detection system that surfaces mispricings daily before games begin, not after final scores appear. Edges surface on the live board while the betting window remains open.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 19, 2026 05:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).