Australian AFL · Australian Football · Jul 18, 2026 10:10 UTC · avg book margin 6.3%
Eagles 69, Lions 93: market overpriced the total at 1.88 — closing line confirmed the edge
The totals market for West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions (Australian AFL) carried a mispricing before the opening bounce. At Sportsbet, one side quoted decimal odds of 1.88—a 17.3% premium over the sharp consensus. The board caught it live, and early action capitalized on the posted rate.
Result: 69–93. The backed total cashed for +0.88 units per unit wagered.
The measurable signal: by kickoff, pricing had shifted toward the flagged side by +26.4%. Closing-line value is how professionals separate true edges from noise, because match outcomes cluster around chance while market movement reveals real conviction.
This report runs on the same detection system that surfaces mispricings daily before games begin, not after final scores appear. Edges surface on the live board while the betting window remains open.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
FC U Craiova 1948 vs Maxline Vitebsk
· UEFA Champions League · Soccer — pick FC U Craiova 1948
@ 2.30
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+3.1%
Shin
+3.0%
Power
+3.4%
Additive
-7.9%
Worst case
+3.4%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betanything
2.30
+13.5%
BetUS
2.25
+11.1%
BetOnline
2.25
+11.1%
SportsBetting.ag
2.25
+11.1%
Betmania
2.18
+7.6%
Betano
2.10
+3.7%
Bracco
2.04
+0.7%
Bet105
2.03
+0.2%
YouWager
2.02
-0.3%
Jazz Sports
2.00
-1.3%
Stake
1.98
-2.2%
Unibet
1.98
-2.2%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.30 odds → 43% implied win probability
49%
Fair win probability
+8.7% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.3% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Soccer) — +8.0% settled ROI on 40% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.2% settled ROI on 48% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.0% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
Past performance
Based on 108 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+6.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+4.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
83%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +1.0% to +7.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 15, 06:20 UTC at 2.15 (+3.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.03 → closing-line value +2.7%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.15 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for West Coast Eagles vs Brisbane Lions
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 19, 2026 05:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).