Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer · Jul 19, 2026 21:45 UTC · avg book margin 8.5%
Guayaquil City FC meets Manta with SportsBetting.ag quoting 3.6% above sharp consensus on the Asian handicap, 24 hours out
Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
99
Omen Score
+3.6%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Pick: Guayaquil City FC
@ 2.20 — best price at SportsBetting.ag
Fits 7 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +8.8% on settled bets
The Asian handicap for Guayaquil City FC vs Manta (Ecuadorian Serie A) has split the market with a day to go. SportsBetting.ag is showing decimal odds of 2.20 on one side — a 3.6% overquote relative to where independent sharp operators have settled on fair value. The mismatch is active now, not retroactive: the opportunity persists only while these odds remain posted.
One quote has drifted 2.2 standard deviations from where the rest of the market clusters — too far to be random noise, close enough to be real.
Three separate sharp operators converge on the fair line, so this consensus doesn't rest on any single book's model.
The bet structure aligns with 7 documented winning patterns in the Playbook — the highest-ROI variant has closed at +8.8%.
Soccer Asian handicap signals in the mid-odds tier have a settled record: 1575 tracked bets across this segment returned +1.8% ROI, showing these mispricings do convert.
Mispricings this magnitude compress before kickoff — comparable edges in this market segment typically correct within roughly 11 hours.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
FC U Craiova 1948 vs Maxline Vitebsk
· UEFA Champions League · Soccer — pick FC U Craiova 1948
@ 2.30
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+3.1%
Shin
+3.0%
Power
+3.4%
Additive
-7.9%
Worst case
+3.4%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Betanything
2.30
+13.5%
BetUS
2.25
+11.1%
BetOnline
2.25
+11.1%
SportsBetting.ag
2.25
+11.1%
Betmania
2.18
+7.6%
Betano
2.10
+3.7%
Bracco
2.04
+0.7%
Bet105
2.03
+0.2%
YouWager
2.02
-0.3%
Jazz Sports
2.00
-1.3%
Stake
1.98
-2.2%
Unibet
1.98
-2.2%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.30 odds → 43% implied win probability
49%
Fair win probability
+8.7% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.3% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Soccer) — +8.0% settled ROI on 40% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.2% settled ROI on 48% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.0% settled ROI on 43% winners
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
Past performance
Based on 108 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+6.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+4.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
83%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +1.0% to +7.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 15, 06:20 UTC at 2.15 (+3.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.03 → closing-line value +2.7%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.15 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Guayaquil City FC vs Manta
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).