WNBA · Basketball · Jul 18, 2026 20:00 EDT · avg book margin 8.2%

Indiana FevervsNew York Liberty

Totals split bookmakers by 3.4% — 31 hours until tipoff

What happened: Final score: 108–88. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.00 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.0% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 31 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Offered2.00Fair price1.93+3.4% above fair

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 30.8 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

With 31 hours left before Indiana Fever takes on New York Liberty (WNBA), the totals market has fractured across sportsbooks. The widest-priced side is currently 3.4% above what sharp consensus identifies as fair value. The mispricing is live right now — this window closes as market consensus hardens.

Bookmakers have scattered their quotes more than usual on this matchup. When that happens, the sharp consensus reveals which direction the market has drifted too far.

That consensus rests on 13 independent sharp operators, so it represents genuine disagreement in the market rather than any single book's isolated view.

Four patterns from our historical Playbook align with this signal's structure. The most profitable variant has returned +13.6% across its settled bets.

In the past, basketball totals at similar odds intervals have produced +30.4% ROI across 32 closed positions. The bet type and price tier match what we've tracked before.

Mispricings at this scale typically vanish fast. For totals in this market, the edge has historically survived roughly 17 hours before sharp money corrects the line.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks · WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky @ 2.08
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.9%
Entry edge
+3.5%
Edge near close
+1.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.01
Fair price (no-vig)
2.12
Entry odds
Quality
85/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
2.6%
Recommended stake
3.3%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
BC.Game2.08+3.5%
betplay2.08+3.5%
rivalry2.08+3.5%
betwhale2.08+3.5%
Heritage Sports2.04+1.6%
Betway2.00-0.4%
FanDuel2.00-0.4%
Bet991.95-2.8%
espn-bet1.95-2.8%
theScore1.95-2.8%
DraftKings1.95-2.8%
BetRight1.94-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Indiana Fever vs New York Liberty is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Jul 19, 2026 02:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).