MLB · Baseball · Jul 19, 2026 16:35 UTC · avg book margin 7.9%

Yankees-Dodgers totals market shows 6.6% mismatch with sharp pricing — 10 hours until game time

Offered2.50Fair price2.35+6.6% above fair
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
95
Omen Score
+5.8%
Edge vs sharp consensus
70
Confidence
5
Sharp sources
Pick: Over New York Yankees|4.5 @ 2.50
Fits 11 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +14.7% on settled bets
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
NorthStar BetsNew York Yankees2.18+3.2%
Desert DiamondNew York Yankees2.18+3.2%
SugarHouseNew York Yankees2.18+3.2%
TwinSpiresNew York Yankees2.18+3.2%
Four WindsNew York Yankees2.18+3.2%
BetRiversNew York Yankees2.18+3.2%
BetNationNew York Yankees2.16+2.3%
Unibet (Australia)New York Yankees2.16+2.3%
CasumoNew York Yankees2.16+2.3%
Play EagleNew York Yankees2.16+2.3%
UnibetNew York Yankees2.16+2.3%
betPARXNew York Yankees2.16+2.3%
Bally BetNew York Yankees2.16+2.3%
ProlineNew York Yankees2.16+2.3%
TABtouchNew York Yankees2.15+1.8%
LeoVegasNew York Yankees2.15+1.8%
1XBetLos Angeles Dodgers1.91-0.3%
betJACKNew York Yankees2.10-0.6%
Prime SportsNew York Yankees2.10-0.6%
NovigLos Angeles Dodgers1.90-0.7%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

Bookmakers are split on the run total for New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers (MLB). With 10 hours to first pitch, one side of the totals market trades 6.6% away from what sharp consensus operators have priced — a discrepancy that remains actionable right now, as markets update in real time.

When sportsbooks diverge this sharply on a single market, disagreement is structural. The sharp consensus identifies where the edge lies.

Five independent sharp sources converge on the fair line, so this edge rests on distributed professional judgment rather than a single operator's model.

The signal aligns with 11 patterns in our historical Playbook — the best-performing variant has posted +14.7% return on closed positions.

Baseball totals at these odds levels carry precedent: 1192 settled bets in this segment have returned +2.6% ROI aggregate, tracked across our database.

Mispricings this size do not typically survive until first pitch — historical data on similar signals suggests convergence within roughly 20 hours as sharp money flows toward fair value.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
FC U Craiova 1948 vs Maxline Vitebsk · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — pick FC U Craiova 1948 @ 2.30
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+3.4%
Entry edge
+13.5%
Edge near close
2.03
Fair price (no-vig)
2.15
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
5
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
2.9%
Recommended stake
10.4%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+3.1%
Shin
+3.0%
Power
+3.4%
Additive
-7.9%
Worst case
+3.4%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Betanything2.30+13.5%
BetUS2.25+11.1%
BetOnline2.25+11.1%
SportsBetting.ag2.25+11.1%
Betmania2.18+7.6%
Betano2.10+3.7%
Bracco2.04+0.7%
Bet1052.03+0.2%
YouWager2.02-0.3%
Jazz Sports2.00-1.3%
Stake1.98-2.2%
Unibet1.98-2.2%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.30 odds → 43% implied win probability
49%
Fair win probability
+8.7% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.3% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Soccer) — +8.0% settled ROI on 40% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +7.2% settled ROI on 48% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +7.0% settled ROI on 43% winners
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +6.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
Past performance

Based on 108 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+6.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+7.7% 🔒
Average return
+4.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
83%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +1.0% to +7.0% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 15, 06:20 UTC at 2.15 (+3.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.03 → closing-line value +2.7%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.15 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for New York Yankees vs Los Angeles Dodgers is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).