WNBA · Basketball · Jul 19, 2026 23:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.1%
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun: winpot's moneyline quote sits 3.0% above sharp consensus with 26 hours to tip
Omenizer detected 9 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
76
Omen Score
+0.8%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
4
Sharp sources
Pick: Connecticut Sun
@ 2.60 — best price at winpot
Fits 1 Playbook pattern — strongest has realized +4.8% on settled bets
The moneyline for Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun (WNBA) has fractured across bookmakers. Winpot is quoting decimal odds of 2.60 on one side — a 3.0% premium over where independent sharp sources have priced fair value. The gap is measurable and live right now, before either team takes the court.
The consensus underpinning this edge comes from 3 independent sharp operators, so the fair line isn't drawn from one book's model alone.
The bet structure overlaps 1 pattern with a documented edge in the Playbook — that variant has closed at +4.8% ROI.
WNBA moneylines at these odds have a trackable past. Across 1408 settled bets in the mid-odds range, this segment has returned +7.1% ROI — evidence that similar mispricings convert into measurable gains.
Mispricings this size do not survive until tipoff. Historical records show comparable edges in this market typically flatten within roughly 21 hours as sharp money corrects the price.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun
· WNBA · Basketball — pick Connecticut Sun
@ 2.65
75Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.5%
Shin
+0.5%
Power
+3.4%
Additive
-14.2%
Worst case
+3.4%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Winpot
2.65
+1.5%
Sportzino
2.65
+1.5%
Team Mexico
2.65
+1.5%
CampoBet
2.65
+1.5%
Jackpot-Bet
2.65
+1.5%
Ninja Casino
2.65
+1.5%
Bodog
2.60
-0.4%
Novig
2.60
-0.4%
Bovada
2.60
-0.4%
Lottoland
2.60
-0.4%
Matchbook
2.60
-0.4%
Betfair Exchange
2.60
-0.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.65 odds → 38% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.5% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +7.5% settled ROI on 42% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +6.5% settled ROI on 40% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +5.2% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 37 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+8.6% 🔒
Closing line value
+1.3% 🔒
Average return
+6.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
49%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +2.8% to +6.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 17, 06:13 UTC at 2.85 (+3.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.62 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.85 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).