Brazilian Serie A · Soccer · Jul 21, 2026 22:30 UTC · avg book margin 5.3%

Atlético Mineiro–Bahia Asian handicap trades 2.2% soft at SX.bet; 9 hours to kickoff

Offered at SX.bet1.93Fair price1.89+2.1% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 772 live signals across 310 matches, found the same way.

A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
BET99Atlético Mineiro2.10+6.6%
TAB (New Zealand)Atlético Mineiro2.10+6.6%
NorthStar BetsAtlético Mineiro2.02+2.5%
Dabble (Australia)Atlético Mineiro2.02+2.5%
Ninja CasinoAtlético Mineiro2.00+1.5%
Jackpot.betAtlético Mineiro2.00+1.5%
Sports InteractionAtlético Mineiro2.00+1.5%
Bally BetAtlético Mineiro2.00+1.5%
Hard Rock (Illinois)Atlético Mineiro2.00+1.5%
Hard Rock (Florida)Atlético Mineiro2.00+1.5%
SX BetDraw3.76-0.2%
SX.betDraw3.76-0.2%
winpotDraw3.75-0.5%
betsafeAtlético Mineiro1.95-0.9%
ibetAtlético Mineiro1.95-0.9%
rizkAtlético Mineiro1.95-0.9%
betssonAtlético Mineiro1.95-0.9%
caesarsAtlético Mineiro1.95-0.9%
William HillAtlético Mineiro1.95-0.9%
Sportsbetting.agAtlético Mineiro1.95-0.9%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

SX.bet is quoting decimal odds of 1.93 on one side of the Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia Asian handicap (Brazilian Serie A)—a 2.2% gap beneath where independent sharp operators have anchored fair value. The mispricing is live as this page loads, with 9 hours remaining before the match begins.

The consensus reflects input from 5 separate independent sharp sources, making the underlying fair line a robust aggregate rather than any single operator's judgment.

Our Playbook identifies 6 historical patterns matching this signal structure; the best-performing one has posted +32.0% ROI on settled outcomes.

Across 233 resolved wagers in this exact category—soccer Asian handicap at comparable odds—tracked signals have returned +0.9% ROI historically.

Comparable pricing inefficiencies in this market segment have historically compressed within roughly 11 hours as sharper action realigns the line toward kickoff.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Mushuc Runa vs Orense SC · Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer — pick Mushuc Runa @ 1.93
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.0%
Entry edge
+2.0%
Edge near close
+0.3%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.89
Fair price (no-vig)
2.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
5
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
2.2%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.0%
Shin
+5.0%
Power
+5.0%
Additive
-3.1%
Worst case
+5.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bodog1.93+2.0%
Bovada1.93+2.0%
Heritage1.92+1.6%
Superbet1.92+1.6%
Betfair Exchange1.92+1.6%
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92+1.6%
Betano1.91+1.1%
Betamapola1.91+1.1%
Fliff1.87-1.0%
Sportzino1.83-2.9%
BetDEX1.81-4.0%
Bet1051.80-4.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.93 odds → 52% implied win probability
53%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Soccer) — +7.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.7% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +4.1% settled ROI on 38% winners
Past performance

Based on 102 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+8.6% 🔒
Average return
+3.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
84%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.1% to +4.4% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:35 UTC at 2.10 (+5.0% edge) → fair price at close 1.90 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).