Brazilian Serie A · Soccer · Jul 21, 2026 19:30 -03 · avg book margin 5.3%

Atlético MineirovsBahia

Asian handicap trades 2.2% soft at SX.bet; 9 hours to kickoff

What happened: Final score: 1–1. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-8.6% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 75 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Offered at SX.bet1.93Fair price1.89+2.1% above fair

Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 9.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

SX.bet is quoting decimal odds of 1.93 on one side of the Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia Asian handicap (Brazilian Serie A)—a 2.2% gap beneath where independent sharp operators have anchored fair value. The mispricing is live as this page loads, with 9 hours remaining before the match begins.

The consensus reflects input from 5 separate independent sharp sources, making the underlying fair line a robust aggregate rather than any single operator's judgment.

Our Playbook identifies 6 historical patterns matching this signal structure; the best-performing one has posted +32.0% ROI on settled outcomes.

Across 233 resolved wagers in this exact category—soccer Asian handicap at comparable odds—tracked signals have returned +0.9% ROI historically.

Comparable pricing inefficiencies in this market segment have historically compressed within roughly 11 hours as sharper action realigns the line toward kickoff.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Jul 22, 2026 00:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).