Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer · Jul 21, 2026 21:30 UTC

Club Libertad–Delfin SC: 1xBet's 1X2 quote trades 21.5% soft to sharp consensus, 17 hours to kickoff

Offered at 1xBet2.95Fair price2.43+21.5% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 827 live signals across 329 matches, found the same way.

A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
CoolbetDraw3.15+1.6%
BetDEXDraw3.13+1.0%
ESPN BETDraw3.10+0.0%
theScoreDraw3.10+0.0%
Jazz SportsDraw3.08-0.6%
Four WindsClub Libertad2.35-1.5%
TwinSpiresClub Libertad2.35-1.5%
RushBetClub Libertad2.35-1.5%
SugarHouseClub Libertad2.35-1.5%
Desert DiamondClub Libertad2.35-1.5%
BetRiversClub Libertad2.35-1.5%
UnibetClub Libertad2.35-1.5%
UnibetDraw3.05-1.6%
HeritageDraw3.05-1.6%
SuperbetDraw3.05-1.6%
RizkDraw3.05-1.6%
BetsafeDraw3.05-1.6%
BetssonDraw3.05-1.6%
iBetDraw3.05-1.6%
Four WindsDraw3.00-3.2%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

The 1X2 (match result) market for Club Libertad vs Delfin SC (Ecuadorian Serie A) has fractured across sportsbooks with 17 hours remaining. At 1xBet, one outcome sits at decimal 2.95—a level 21.5% below what independent sharp operators consider fair value. The mismatch is active now as this page loads, not a historical artifact.

1xBet's price registers 5.6 standard deviations from the consensus cluster—a statistical anomaly that transcends ordinary market churn.

Four professional-grade sources anchor the consensus, making it a collective judgment rather than any single book's position.

Four patterns from our Playbook align with this setup; the most reliable has posted +8.0% ROI on closed bets.

Soccer 1X2 wagers in this odds range have returned +5.1% ROI across 2755 settled bets on our board—a baseline for how often such mispricings reverse.

Pricing gaps this wide rarely survive to kickoff: comparable edges in this market have held for roughly 25 hours before sharp action erases them.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Mushuc Runa vs Orense SC · Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer — pick Mushuc Runa @ 1.93
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.0%
Entry edge
+2.0%
Edge near close
+0.3%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.89
Fair price (no-vig)
2.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
5
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
2.2%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.0%
Shin
+5.0%
Power
+5.0%
Additive
-3.1%
Worst case
+5.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bodog1.93+2.0%
Bovada1.93+2.0%
Heritage1.92+1.6%
Superbet1.92+1.6%
Betfair Exchange1.92+1.6%
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92+1.6%
Betano1.91+1.1%
Betamapola1.91+1.1%
Fliff1.87-1.0%
Sportzino1.83-2.9%
BetDEX1.81-4.0%
Bet1051.80-4.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.93 odds → 52% implied win probability
53%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Soccer) — +7.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.7% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +4.1% settled ROI on 38% winners
Past performance

Based on 102 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+8.6% 🔒
Average return
+3.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
84%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.1% to +4.4% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:35 UTC at 2.10 (+5.0% edge) → fair price at close 1.90 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Club Libertad vs Delfin SC is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).