WNBA · Basketball · Jul 21, 2026 00:00 UTC · avg book margin 7.4%
Dallas Wings–New York Liberty totals split 2.4% wide, 10 hours until tip-off
What happened: Final score: 98–99. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.00 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.9% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 10 hours after detection before the edge closed.
The totals market for Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty (WNBA) is showing price scatter across sportsbooks with 10 hours remaining before game time. Sharp consensus sits 2.4% apart from the highest available quote — a live mismatch, not a hindsight observation, captured as this story loads.
Two patterns from our historical Playbook correspond to this signal, with the top performer delivering +11.5% ROI on settled bets.
Basketball totals in this odds tier have a trackable record: 37 settled bets across comparable signals returned +29.0% ROI, showing how these pricing gaps have historically resolved.
Gaps of this size rarely survive to game time — comparable edges in this market segment have typically compressed within roughly 17 hours as sharp action narrows the spread.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun
· WNBA · Basketball — pick Connecticut Sun
@ 2.65
75Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.5%
Shin
+0.5%
Power
+3.4%
Additive
-14.2%
Worst case
+3.4%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Winpot
2.65
+1.5%
Sportzino
2.65
+1.5%
Team Mexico
2.65
+1.5%
CampoBet
2.65
+1.5%
Jackpot-Bet
2.65
+1.5%
Ninja Casino
2.65
+1.5%
Bodog
2.60
-0.4%
Novig
2.60
-0.4%
Bovada
2.60
-0.4%
Lottoland
2.60
-0.4%
Matchbook
2.60
-0.4%
Betfair Exchange
2.60
-0.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.65 odds → 38% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.5% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +7.5% settled ROI on 42% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +6.5% settled ROI on 40% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +5.2% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 37 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+8.6% 🔒
Closing line value
+1.3% 🔒
Average return
+6.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
49%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +2.8% to +6.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 17, 06:13 UTC at 2.85 (+3.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.62 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.85 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 21, 2026 02:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).