WNBA · Basketball · Jul 21, 2026 00:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.2%

1xBet quotes Wings-Liberty moneyline 2.9% soft to sharp consensus, 44 hours out

Offered at 1xBet2.21Fair price2.15+2.9% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 607 live signals across 239 matches, found the same way.

A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
1XBetDallas Wings2.21+2.9%
BetGRWDallas Wings2.11-1.7%
Jazz SportsDallas Wings2.10-2.2%
PlayNowDallas Wings2.10-2.2%
CoolbetDallas Wings2.10-2.2%
FanDuelDallas Wings2.08-3.1%
SportsbetDallas Wings2.08-3.1%
betwhaleDallas Wings2.06-4.0%
RivalryDallas Wings2.06-4.0%
BetplayDallas Wings2.06-4.0%
betJACKNew York Liberty1.81-4.1%
LeoVegasNew York Liberty1.81-4.4%
Unibet (Australia)New York Liberty1.81-4.4%
CasumoNew York Liberty1.81-4.4%
BetNationNew York Liberty1.81-4.4%
NorthStar BetsNew York Liberty1.81-4.4%
Play EagleNew York Liberty1.81-4.4%
UnibetNew York Liberty1.81-4.4%
betPARXNew York Liberty1.81-4.4%
Bally BetNew York Liberty1.81-4.4%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

With 44 hours remaining before Dallas Wings face New York Liberty (WNBA), one sportsbook's moneyline quote has drifted away from what professional operators view as fair value. At 1xBet, decimal odds of 2.21 on one side sit 2.9% below the sharpline consensus—a gap that remains open as long as the market hasn't corrected. The mismatch is measurable, the timing is now.

The 1xBet price lands 2.9 standard deviations away from the consensus cluster, placing it well beyond routine volatility. When a single operator's quote drifts this far from where the rest of the market has congregated, structural disagreement rather than everyday scatter is at work.

This configuration aligns with 1 pattern in the Playbook archive that has shown edge. The best-performing variant in that category has posted +4.3% return on its closed positions.

The historical ledger for this market type—basketball moneyline at mid-range odds—tracks a +7.1% ROI aggregate return across 1408 settled bets. That record sits behind any edge diagnosis now.

Mispricings of this size do not typically wait until the opening tip. Data on similar signals in this market segment suggests the consensus and outlier usually converge within roughly 21 hours, as sharp money flows to the mispriced side.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun · WNBA · Basketball — pick Connecticut Sun @ 2.65
75 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+3.4%
Entry edge
+1.5%
Edge near close
+1.3%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.61
Fair price (no-vig)
2.85
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
1.8%
Recommended stake
0.9%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.5%
Shin
+0.5%
Power
+3.4%
Additive
-14.2%
Worst case
+3.4%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Winpot2.65+1.5%
Sportzino2.65+1.5%
Team Mexico2.65+1.5%
CampoBet2.65+1.5%
Jackpot-Bet2.65+1.5%
Ninja Casino2.65+1.5%
Bodog2.60-0.4%
Novig2.60-0.4%
Bovada2.60-0.4%
Lottoland2.60-0.4%
Matchbook2.60-0.4%
Betfair Exchange2.60-0.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.65 odds → 38% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.5% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +7.5% settled ROI on 42% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +6.5% settled ROI on 40% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +5.2% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance

Based on 37 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+8.6% 🔒
Closing line value
+1.3% 🔒
Average return
+6.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
49%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +2.8% to +6.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 17, 06:13 UTC at 2.85 (+3.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.62 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.85 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).