WNBA · Basketball · Jul 21, 2026 00:00 UTC

Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty: New York Liberty's moneyline tightened 6 points, and theScore held stale odds for 29 minutes

3pp window, 29 min42%48%54% market median theScore (slowest)

Before the game arrived by 29 hours, the moneyline market signaled a shift. At 19:00 UTC, Dallas Wings's implied win probability collapsed from 52% to 46% across 80+ bookmakers in under an hour. A move this sudden and wide carries information—it reflects capital that has already decided.

The repricing didn't happen everywhere at once. Early movers like 4cx and BetGRW adjusted their boards within 29 minutes. Among the 51 bookmakers that repriced, theScore became the slowest holdout, requiring 29 minutes before matching the new consensus.

Three sportsbooks trailed the pack: theScore (29 min), ibet (29 min), and betwhale (29 min). That lag window has closed. For those 29 minutes, bettors armed with the updated market price could have backed New York Liberty at theScore's stale quote—a 3-point gap sat on offer while the rest of the field had already moved.

Hours after the repricing, 28 sportsbooks were still displaying old prices. This is where opportunity lived: when the informed market had repositioned and a book had not yet followed, its unchanged line became the exact inefficiency worth flagging. Real-time boards catch this lag; most bettors don't.

Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun · WNBA · Basketball — pick Connecticut Sun @ 2.65
75 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+3.4%
Entry edge
+1.5%
Edge near close
+1.3%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.61
Fair price (no-vig)
2.85
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
1.8%
Recommended stake
0.9%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.5%
Shin
+0.5%
Power
+3.4%
Additive
-14.2%
Worst case
+3.4%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Winpot2.65+1.5%
Sportzino2.65+1.5%
Team Mexico2.65+1.5%
CampoBet2.65+1.5%
Jackpot-Bet2.65+1.5%
Ninja Casino2.65+1.5%
Bodog2.60-0.4%
Novig2.60-0.4%
Bovada2.60-0.4%
Lottoland2.60-0.4%
Matchbook2.60-0.4%
Betfair Exchange2.60-0.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.65 odds → 38% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.5% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +7.5% settled ROI on 42% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +6.5% settled ROI on 40% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +5.2% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance

Based on 37 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+8.6% 🔒
Closing line value
+1.3% 🔒
Average return
+6.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
49%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +2.8% to +6.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 17, 06:13 UTC at 2.85 (+3.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.62 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.85 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Dallas Wings vs New York Liberty is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).