UEFA Champions League · Soccer · Jul 21, 2026 18:30 UTC · avg book margin 6.5%
Sturm Graz demolished Heart of Midlothian 4–0: a 9.1% mispricing at PointsBet closed in the backer's favor
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 850 live signals across 385 matches, found the same way.
A mispricing in the Asian handicap market for Sturm Graz vs Heart of Midlothian (UEFA Champions League) presented itself at PointsBet before the match began. Decimal odds of 2.25 on one side diverged 9.1% from sharp consensus. The board flagged the gap while bettors could still act on it.
Sturm Graz won 4–0. On a 1-unit flat stake at the flagged decimal, the payout was +1.25 units.
What separates luck from edge is closing-line value. By kickoff, the market had shifted +2.2% in favor of the backed side—evidence the market was recalibrating toward truth. CLV is what professionals use to audit bet quality, because one match result tells you almost nothing.
Across 1613 settled bets in soccer Asian handicap at these odds levels, this segment has returned +2.2% ROI on the board.
Detection happens live, before kickoff, not after. The board surfaces mispricings the moment they appear—while betting windows remain open and capital can deploy.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Mushuc Runa vs Orense SC
· Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer — pick Mushuc Runa
@ 1.93
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.0%
Shin
+5.0%
Power
+5.0%
Additive
-3.1%
Worst case
+5.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bodog
1.93
+2.0%
Bovada
1.93
+2.0%
Heritage
1.92
+1.6%
Superbet
1.92
+1.6%
Betfair Exchange
1.92
+1.6%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.92
+1.6%
Betano
1.91
+1.1%
Betamapola
1.91
+1.1%
Fliff
1.87
-1.0%
Sportzino
1.83
-2.9%
BetDEX
1.81
-4.0%
Bet105
1.80
-4.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.93 odds → 52% implied win probability
53%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Soccer) — +7.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.7% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +4.1% settled ROI on 38% winners
Past performance
Based on 102 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+8.6% 🔒
Average return
+3.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
84%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.1% to +4.4% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:35 UTC at 2.10 (+5.0% edge) → fair price at close 1.90 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Sturm Graz vs Heart of Midlothian
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 22, 2026 04:52 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).