WNBA · Basketball · Jul 22, 2026 19:00 UTC · avg book margin 6.4%
Sparks–Mercury WNBA line: 6.1% overpriced at one book, closed tighter before tipoff — the gap compression is what counts
Omenizer detected 2 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
On the Los Angeles Sparks versus Phoenix Mercury matchup, one sportsbook priced the Asian handicap at decimal 2.20—roughly 6.1% softer than sharp consensus. The board identified and published the signal before the game started, while the mispricing remained accessible to bettors.
Sparks fell 82–86. The flagged bet did not cash. In isolation, a single game is a coin flip; we publish losses and wins without filtering.
The metric that survives across many bets: the book tightened its pricing by +1.3% before tipoff, moving in the direction the signal had identified. This closing-line value is what professionals track, because individual outcomes hide beneath variance while market corrections are structural.
Detection happens live—the algorithm catches these mispricings the moment bookmakers post them, well before tipoff. The board stays live while betting windows are still open, not after final scores appear.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun
· WNBA · Basketball — pick Connecticut Sun
@ 2.65
75Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.5%
Shin
+0.5%
Power
+3.4%
Additive
-14.2%
Worst case
+3.4%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Winpot
2.65
+1.5%
Sportzino
2.65
+1.5%
Team Mexico
2.65
+1.5%
CampoBet
2.65
+1.5%
Jackpot-Bet
2.65
+1.5%
Ninja Casino
2.65
+1.5%
Bodog
2.60
-0.4%
Novig
2.60
-0.4%
Bovada
2.60
-0.4%
Lottoland
2.60
-0.4%
Matchbook
2.60
-0.4%
Betfair Exchange
2.60
-0.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.65 odds → 38% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.5% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +7.5% settled ROI on 42% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +6.5% settled ROI on 40% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +5.2% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 37 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+8.6% 🔒
Closing line value
+1.3% 🔒
Average return
+6.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
49%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +2.8% to +6.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 17, 06:13 UTC at 2.85 (+3.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.62 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.85 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Los Angeles Sparks vs Phoenix Mercury
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 24, 2026 05:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).