WNBA · Basketball · Jul 22, 2026 22:00 EDT · avg book margin 7.0%

Portland FirevsDallas Wings

Totals show a 3.0% split from sharp pricing, 4 hours until tipoff

What happened: Final score: 97–101. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.00 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-5.6% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 4 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Offered2.00Fair price1.94+3.0% above fair

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 4.2 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

The over-under for Portland Fire vs Dallas Wings (WNBA) has fractured across the betting market: one book's totals quote sits 3.0% removed from where sharp operators have clustered their estimates. The gap is measurable right now, as this page updates, with hours remaining before the teams take the court.

Our historical playbook flags 2 patterns that match this setup, including one that has generated +10.8% ROI when tracked across closed bets.

Basketball totals in this odds range—mid-tier action—have proven fertile ground: 37 recorded bets in the same segment returned +29.0% cumulative ROI.

Gaps this size typically collapse before game time: comparable totals mispricings have historically held for roughly 17 hours before sharp action forces prices into alignment.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks · WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky @ 2.08
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.9%
Entry edge
+3.5%
Edge near close
+1.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.01
Fair price (no-vig)
2.12
Entry odds
Quality
85/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
2.6%
Recommended stake
3.3%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
BC.Game2.08+3.5%
betplay2.08+3.5%
rivalry2.08+3.5%
betwhale2.08+3.5%
Heritage Sports2.04+1.6%
Betway2.00-0.4%
FanDuel2.00-0.4%
Bet991.95-2.8%
espn-bet1.95-2.8%
theScore1.95-2.8%
DraftKings1.95-2.8%
BetRight1.94-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Portland Fire vs Dallas Wings is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Jul 23, 2026 04:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).