Moneyline: jackpot-bet pricing 8.3% above sharp consensus with 46 hours to play
What happened: Final score: 97–101. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-4.0% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 46 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 16 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 45.7 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The moneyline for Portland Fire vs Dallas Wings (WNBA) has split across books 46 hours before tip-off, with jackpot-bet quoting decimal odds of 3.50 on one outcome—a 8.3% premium over what independent sharp operators have settled on. The divergence is active as this page loads, not archived data: there is still time to act.
This outlier sits 2.1 standard deviations beyond the clustering price, marking genuine disagreement rather than typical daily drift.
The setup aligns with 2 profitable patterns from our historical Playbook, with the top performer reaching +10.3% ROI on closed bets.
Basketball moneyline bets in this odds band have returned +7.0% ROI across 1410 settled wagers tracked on our board—a historical baseline for how often such mismatches resolve.
Edges at this magnitude typically compress before tip-off: comparable signals have lasted roughly 22 hours before sharp action narrows the gap.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks
· WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky
@ 2.08
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
BC.Game
2.08
+3.5%
betplay
2.08
+3.5%
rivalry
2.08
+3.5%
betwhale
2.08
+3.5%
Heritage Sports
2.04
+1.6%
Betway
2.00
-0.4%
FanDuel
2.00
-0.4%
Bet99
1.95
-2.8%
espn-bet
1.95
-2.8%
theScore
1.95
-2.8%
DraftKings
1.95
-2.8%
BetRight
1.94
-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Portland Fire vs Dallas Wings
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 23, 2026 04:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).