Brazilian Serie A · Soccer · Jul 24, 2026 00:30 UTC
Bodog overvalues Coritiba–Palmeiras draw-no-bet by 8.1% as sharp sources converge; 48 hours remain
Omenizer detected 26 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
67
Omen Score
+8.1%
Edge vs sharp consensus
50
Confidence
2
Sharp sources
Pick: Palmeiras
@ 1.53 — best price at Bodog
Fits 1 Playbook pattern — strongest has realized +12.8% on settled bets
With two days before Coritiba plays Palmeiras in Brazilian Serie A, sharp operators and retail books have split on draw-no-bet pricing. Bodog is quoting decimal 1.53 on one side—an 8.1% premium over what independent professional sources consider fair value. The mispricing exists now, not after the whistle.
The consensus draws from 2 independent sharp operators, so the fair line isn't a single book's bet—it's a pooled judgment.
This signal matches 1 pattern in our historical Playbook. The strongest version of that pattern has produced +12.8% ROI across its settled sample.
Draw-no-bet soccer signals at these odds have a track record: 1308 closed wagers in this category returned +6.5% ROI, measured across all settled outcomes.
Bodog's edge typically doesn't outlast the countdown. In this market and price zone, sharper action has historically flattened the gap in roughly 35 hours.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Mushuc Runa vs Orense SC
· Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer — pick Mushuc Runa
@ 1.93
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.0%
Shin
+5.0%
Power
+5.0%
Additive
-3.1%
Worst case
+5.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bodog
1.93
+2.0%
Bovada
1.93
+2.0%
Heritage
1.92
+1.6%
Superbet
1.92
+1.6%
Betfair Exchange
1.92
+1.6%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.92
+1.6%
Betano
1.91
+1.1%
Betamapola
1.91
+1.1%
Fliff
1.87
-1.0%
Sportzino
1.83
-2.9%
BetDEX
1.81
-4.0%
Bet105
1.80
-4.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.93 odds → 52% implied win probability
53%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Soccer) — +7.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.7% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +4.1% settled ROI on 38% winners
Past performance
Based on 102 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+8.6% 🔒
Average return
+3.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
84%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.1% to +4.4% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:35 UTC at 2.10 (+5.0% edge) → fair price at close 1.90 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Coritiba vs Palmeiras
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).