Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer · Jul 23, 2026 19:00 -05 · avg book margin 8.6%
EmelecvsMushuc Runa
Asian handicap: SportsBetting.ag pricing 6.2% soft to sharp consensus with 48 hours on the clock
What happened: Final score: 1–1. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.20 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-2.4% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 62 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 494 live signals across 185 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 48 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The Asian handicap for Emelec–Mushuc Runa (Ecuadorian Serie A) has split across sportsbooks with two days until kickoff. At SportsBetting.ag, one side is quoting decimal 2.20—a 6.2% deviation from where independent sharp operators have settled. The mismatch is live as this page renders, not a closed-market artifact.
Three professional-grade sources converge on the fair line in this market, so the consensus reflects aggregate operator calibration rather than a lone outlier.
The setup aligns with 2 patterns from our historical Playbook; the most consistent has delivered +8.0% ROI when those bets closed.
Soccer Asian handicap wagers in this odds range have posted +2.1% cumulative ROI across 1608 settled bets tracked on our board—a baseline for how often such gaps reverse.
Mispricings this size typically don't last: edges in this market segment have historically compressed within roughly 11 hours as sharp action moves the line.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
· UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe
@ 1.98
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Matchbook
2.10
+9.2%
BetOnline
1.98
+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag
1.98
+2.9%
Betr AU
1.93
+0.1%
BC.Game
1.91
-0.8%
betplay
1.91
-0.8%
rivalry
1.91
-0.8%
betwhale
1.91
-0.8%
Jazz Sports
1.91
-0.8%
Coolbet
1.90
-1.2%
SX.bet
1.88
-2.4%
betmania
1.88
-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Emelec vs Mushuc Runa
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 24, 2026 05:21 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).