Mexican Liga de Expansión MX · Soccer · Jul 25, 2026 23:00 UTC · avg book margin 8.5%
Venados edged Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3–0 after market priced one side 17.3% soft — closing line validated the call
Omenizer detected 7 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
Mexican Liga de Expansión MX match Venados vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca opened with an Asian handicap listing at 888sport trading at decimal 2.30—a 17.3% departure from the sharp consensus. The board surfaced the gap while the market window remained active. Both sides wound up on the correct side of the decision when Venados won 3–0.
Venados 3, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0. A 1-unit bet at the flagged price paid back 1 unit in profit.
What matters for long-term judgment: the market drifted +1.0% toward the backed side by kickoff—positive closing-line value. Professionals measure bets this way because one match outcome is noise; where the price moves is signal.
Soccer Asian handicap signals tracked in this odds band have logged +2.7% ROI across 1673 settled plays on record.
Detection runs live as bookmakers post prices, not hours afterward. The same engine surfaces these edges every day before kickoff—the live board displays them while markets are still taking action.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Mushuc Runa vs Orense SC
· Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer — pick Mushuc Runa
@ 1.93
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.0%
Shin
+5.0%
Power
+5.0%
Additive
-3.1%
Worst case
+5.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bodog
1.93
+2.0%
Bovada
1.93
+2.0%
Heritage
1.92
+1.6%
Superbet
1.92
+1.6%
Betfair Exchange
1.92
+1.6%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.92
+1.6%
Betano
1.91
+1.1%
Betamapola
1.91
+1.1%
Fliff
1.87
-1.0%
Sportzino
1.83
-2.9%
BetDEX
1.81
-4.0%
Bet105
1.80
-4.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.93 odds → 52% implied win probability
53%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Soccer) — +7.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.7% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +4.1% settled ROI on 38% winners
Past performance
Based on 102 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+8.6% 🔒
Average return
+3.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
84%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.1% to +4.4% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:35 UTC at 2.10 (+5.0% edge) → fair price at close 1.90 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Venados vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 26, 2026 05:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).