Brazilian Serie A · Soccer · Jul 26, 2026 19:00 UTC

Bahia vs Corinthians: NorthStar Bets has the 1X2 market priced 4.1% soft to sharp consensus, 48 hours out

Offered at NorthStar Bets3.65Fair price3.51+4.1% above fair

Omenizer detected 14 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
67
Omen Score
+4.1%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
5
Sharp sources
Pick: Corinthians @ 3.65 — best price at NorthStar Bets
Fits 2 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +8.1% on settled bets
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
Hard Rock (Illinois)Corinthians3.60+2.6%
Hard Rock (Florida)Corinthians3.60+2.6%
Bally BetCorinthians3.55+1.2%
Sportsbetting.agCorinthians3.55+1.2%
OvertimeCorinthians3.53+0.6%
tailgate exchangeDraw3.57+-0.0%
NorthStar BetsBahia2.30+0.0%
Unibet (United Kingdom)Corinthians3.50-0.2%
Jackpot.betCorinthians3.50-0.2%
Ninja CasinoCorinthians3.50-0.2%
winpotCorinthians3.50-0.2%
campobetCorinthians3.50-0.2%
ninja-casinoCorinthians3.50-0.2%
jackpot-betCorinthians3.50-0.2%
BetDEXCorinthians3.47-1.1%
Hard RockBahia2.25-2.2%
SX.betCorinthians3.43-2.2%
Jazz SportsCorinthians3.42-2.5%
betparxBahia2.23-3.0%
ProlineBahia2.23-3.0%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

With two days until Bahia face Corinthians in Brazilian Serie A, the 1X2 (match result) market has split across operators. NorthStar Bets is showing decimal odds of 3.65 on one outcome—a 4.1% gap from the consensus price established by independent sharp sources. The mispricing remains active as this page renders, not historical.

The NorthStar quote sits 2.3 standard deviations away from market consensus—far enough to register as a genuine dislocation rather than routine volatility.

Five independent sharp operators have converged on the consensus line, meaning the edge reflects aggregated professional calibration rather than one book's isolated view.

The setup matches 2 patterns from our historical Playbook. The strongest of these has realized +8.1% ROI on closed wagers.

In soccer 1X2 matches at mid-range odds, settled bets in this exact category have generated +5.1% ROI across 2815 wagers tracked on our board—a baseline for how often such dislocations reverse.

Mispricings this size rarely survive to kickoff. Comparable edges in this market segment have historically compressed within roughly 27 hours as sharp action reprices the line.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Mushuc Runa vs Orense SC · Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer — pick Mushuc Runa @ 1.93
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.0%
Entry edge
+2.0%
Edge near close
+0.3%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.89
Fair price (no-vig)
2.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
5
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
2.2%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.0%
Shin
+5.0%
Power
+5.0%
Additive
-3.1%
Worst case
+5.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bodog1.93+2.0%
Bovada1.93+2.0%
Heritage1.92+1.6%
Superbet1.92+1.6%
Betfair Exchange1.92+1.6%
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92+1.6%
Betano1.91+1.1%
Betamapola1.91+1.1%
Fliff1.87-1.0%
Sportzino1.83-2.9%
BetDEX1.81-4.0%
Bet1051.80-4.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.93 odds → 52% implied win probability
53%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Soccer) — +7.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.7% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +4.1% settled ROI on 38% winners
Past performance

Based on 102 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+8.6% 🔒
Average return
+3.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
84%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.1% to +4.4% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:35 UTC at 2.10 (+5.0% edge) → fair price at close 1.90 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Bahia vs Corinthians is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).