Brazilian Serie A · Soccer · Jul 26, 2026 16:00 -03

BahiavsCorinthians

NorthStar Bets has the 1X2 market priced 4.1% soft to sharp consensus, 48 hours out

What happened: Final score: 1–1. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +3.5% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 49 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Offered at NorthStar Bets3.65Fair price3.51+4.1% above fair

Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 48 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

With two days until Bahia face Corinthians in Brazilian Serie A, the 1X2 (match result) market has split across operators. NorthStar Bets is showing decimal odds of 3.65 on one outcome—a 4.1% gap from the consensus price established by independent sharp sources. The mispricing remains active as this page renders, not historical.

The NorthStar quote sits 2.3 standard deviations away from market consensus—far enough to register as a genuine dislocation rather than routine volatility.

Five independent sharp operators have converged on the consensus line, meaning the edge reflects aggregated professional calibration rather than one book's isolated view.

The setup matches 2 patterns from our historical Playbook. The strongest of these has realized +8.1% ROI on closed wagers.

In soccer 1X2 matches at mid-range odds, settled bets in this exact category have generated +5.1% ROI across 2815 wagers tracked on our board—a baseline for how often such dislocations reverse.

Mispricings this size rarely survive to kickoff. Comparable edges in this market segment have historically compressed within roughly 27 hours as sharp action reprices the line.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Bahia vs Corinthians is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Jul 26, 2026 21:12 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).