UEFA Champions League · Soccer · Jul 28, 2026 18:45 UTC · avg book margin 6.8%
Heart of Midlothian 0–2 Sturm Graz: the market closed 60.6% softer than the flagged Asian handicap price — closing-line value proved the edge was real
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 668 live signals across 364 matches, found the same way.
A pricing gap emerged in the Asian handicap market for the UEFA Champions League clash between Heart of Midlothian and Sturm Graz. Decimal odds of 3.30 sat 4.9% above sharp consensus at bracco before kickoff, and our board caught it while bettors could still act.
Sturm Graz won 2–0. The backed position lost — single matches are inherently uncertain, and we report outcomes regardless of direction.
What separates edge from randomness: the market repriced toward the flagged side by game time, closing +60.6% better than the capture point. Closing-line value is how professionals evaluate bets long-term, because outcomes scatter but pricing drift reveals structural advantage.
Across 1708 settled bets, this category of signal — soccer Asian handicap at mid-range odds — has tracked to +2.7% ROI on the board.
The system that generates these detections runs live each day before kickoff, not in hindsight. The board displays flagged mispricings while the window to act remains open.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Mushuc Runa vs Orense SC
· Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer — pick Mushuc Runa
@ 1.93
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.0%
Shin
+5.0%
Power
+5.0%
Additive
-3.1%
Worst case
+5.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bodog
1.93
+2.0%
Bovada
1.93
+2.0%
Heritage
1.92
+1.6%
Superbet
1.92
+1.6%
Betfair Exchange
1.92
+1.6%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.92
+1.6%
Betano
1.91
+1.1%
Betamapola
1.91
+1.1%
Fliff
1.87
-1.0%
Sportzino
1.83
-2.9%
BetDEX
1.81
-4.0%
Bet105
1.80
-4.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.93 odds → 52% implied win probability
53%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Soccer) — +7.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.7% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +4.1% settled ROI on 38% winners
Past performance
Based on 102 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+8.6% 🔒
Average return
+3.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
84%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.1% to +4.4% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:35 UTC at 2.10 (+5.0% edge) → fair price at close 1.90 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Heart of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Jul 29, 2026 05:52 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).