UEFA Champions League · Soccer · Jul 29, 2026 15:00 UTC
Kairat Almaty–Omonia Nicosia: sportingbet overvalues one 1X2 outcome by 5.5% versus sharp consensus, 45 hours before kickoff
Omenizer detected 10 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
63
Omen Score
+1.7%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
7
Sharp sources
Pick: Omonia Nicosia
@ 3.40 — best price at sportingbet
Fits 3 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +7.9% on settled bets
Decimal odds of 3.40 at sportingbet on one side of the Kairat Almaty vs Omonia Nicosia 1X2 market (UEFA Champions League) sit 5.5% above where independent sharp operators have anchored fair value—and the pricing discrepancy is open right now, 45 hours from kickoff. This edge reflects live market conditions, not retroactive analysis.
The consensus baseline draws from 7 independent sharp sources, anchoring fair value in aggregated professional judgment rather than a single outlier's view.
Our Playbook links this setup to 3 historically profitable patterns; the best-performing variant has yielded +7.9% ROI across closed wagers.
Soccer 1X2 signals at mid-range odds have accumulated measurable history: 2883 settled bets in this segment returned +4.6% ROI on the aggregate.
Mispricings of this scale tend not to survive until match time. Past comparable edges in this market have typically corrected within roughly 28 hours as sharp capital reprices the line.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Mushuc Runa vs Orense SC
· Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer — pick Mushuc Runa
@ 1.93
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.0%
Shin
+5.0%
Power
+5.0%
Additive
-3.1%
Worst case
+5.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Bodog
1.93
+2.0%
Bovada
1.93
+2.0%
Heritage
1.92
+1.6%
Superbet
1.92
+1.6%
Betfair Exchange
1.92
+1.6%
Betfair Exchange (AU)
1.92
+1.6%
Betano
1.91
+1.1%
Betamapola
1.91
+1.1%
Fliff
1.87
-1.0%
Sportzino
1.83
-2.9%
BetDEX
1.81
-4.0%
Bet105
1.80
-4.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.93 odds → 52% implied win probability
53%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Soccer) — +7.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.7% settled ROI on 41% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +4.1% settled ROI on 38% winners
Past performance
Based on 102 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+8.6% 🔒
Average return
+3.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
84%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.1% to +4.4% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:35 UTC at 2.10 (+5.0% edge) → fair price at close 1.90 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Kairat Almaty vs Omonia Nicosia
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).