WNBA · Basketball · Jul 31, 2026 00:00 UTC · avg book margin 5.1%
Connecticut Sun vs Chicago Sky: Fanatics pricing Connecticut 2.3% softer than sharp consensus, 23 hours to tip
Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
76
Omen Score
+0.5%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
4
Sharp sources
Pick: Connecticut Sun
@ 2.55 — best price at Betano
Fits 5 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +9.1% on settled bets
The moneyline for Connecticut Sun vs Chicago Sky (WNBA) has split the market with 23 hours left before play. At Fanatics, one side trades at decimal odds of 2.55—a quote sitting 2.3% below what independent sharp operators have priced as fair value. The misprice is accessible now, as this page loads.
Fanatics' number sits 3.0 standard deviations away from the consensus cluster—a statistical distance that rules out ordinary variance and signals a genuine outlier.
The consensus itself rests on 3 independent sharp sources, so the fair line reflects judgment distributed across multiple professional operations, not a single book's view.
This configuration matches 5 patterns logged in our Playbook. The most profitable of these has delivered +9.1% ROI when settled.
Basketball moneylines at these odds have tracked profitably in our sample. Across 1412 settled bets in this segment, the return was +7.0% ROI.
Mispricings at this distance don't linger. In comparable spots, sharp action has typically closed the gap within roughly 22 hours.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Phoenix Mercury vs Connecticut Sun
· WNBA · Basketball — pick Connecticut Sun
@ 2.65
75Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+1.5%
Shin
+0.5%
Power
+3.4%
Additive
-14.2%
Worst case
+3.4%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Winpot
2.65
+1.5%
Sportzino
2.65
+1.5%
Team Mexico
2.65
+1.5%
CampoBet
2.65
+1.5%
Jackpot-Bet
2.65
+1.5%
Ninja Casino
2.65
+1.5%
Bodog
2.60
-0.4%
Novig
2.60
-0.4%
Bovada
2.60
-0.4%
Lottoland
2.60
-0.4%
Matchbook
2.60
-0.4%
Betfair Exchange
2.60
-0.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.65 odds → 38% implied win probability
38%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.5% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
• steam entry + home side 🔒 (Any) — +7.5% settled ROI on 42% winners
• closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
• early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +6.5% settled ROI on 40% winners
• consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +5.2% settled ROI on 42% winners
Past performance
Based on 37 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days
+8.6% 🔒
Closing line value
+1.3% 🔒
Average return
+6.0% 🔒
Beat the closing line
49%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +2.8% to +6.3% 🔒
No reliable edge either way: too close to break-even to call
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 17, 06:13 UTC at 2.85 (+3.4% edge) → fair price at close 2.62 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.85 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Chicago Sky vs Connecticut Sun
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).