Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer · Aug 02, 2026 00:00 UTC

Superbet overpricing Emelec result at 2.45 odds — 5.5% above sharp consensus, 48 hours to kickoff

Offered at Superbet2.45Fair price2.32+5.5% above fair

Omenizer detected 8 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair at last refresh — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

LIVE SIGNAL · exactly as it appears on the member board
79
Omen Score
+5.5%
Edge vs sharp consensus
95
Confidence
3
Sharp sources
Pick: Emelec @ 2.45 — best price at Superbet
Fits 2 Playbook patterns — strongest has realized +8.4% on settled bets
This is 1 of the live signals on the board right now · see them all with a free account
A SAMPLE OF BOOKMAKERS ON THIS MATCH · right now — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerSideOddsVs fair
SuperbetEmelec2.45+5.5%
1XBetEmelec2.43+4.6%
Jazz SportsEmelec2.41+3.7%
CoolbetEmelec2.40+3.3%
ESPN BETEmelec2.35+1.2%
theScoreEmelec2.35+1.2%
Galera.betEmelec2.35+1.2%
HeritageEmelec2.33+0.3%
SABA SportsEmelec2.32-0.1%
CodereEmelec2.30-1.0%
888sportEmelec2.30-1.0%
BetDEXEmelec2.30-1.0%
bwinEmelec2.30-1.0%
Sports InteractionEmelec2.30-1.0%
SportingbetEmelec2.30-1.0%
SportzinoEmelec2.25-3.1%
FliffEmelec2.25-3.1%
TwinSpiresEmelec2.23-4.0%
RushBetEmelec2.23-4.0%
Desert DiamondEmelec2.23-4.0%

Margins and best-price rates for every book we track

In the 1X2 market for Emelec vs SD Aucas (Ecuadorian Serie A), a gap has opened between Superbet and the rest of the field. One outcome is quoting at decimal odds of 2.45 on Superbet—5.5% higher than where independent sharp operators have priced it. The mismatch is live right now, not a post-hoc observation: you're reading this while the window remains open.

Superbet's quote sits 2.3 standard deviations away from where the broader market has clustered. That gap is too wide to be random fluctuation—it signals genuine mispricing.

Three independent sharp sources converge on the consensus price, so the fair line isn't one bookmaker's hunch but overlapping professional judgment.

Our Playbook matches this signal to 2 historically profitable patterns; the strongest of them has posted +8.4% ROI on its resolved bets.

Signals in this exact niche—soccer 1X2 (match result), mid-range odds—have produced +4.8% ROI across 2905 settled bets tracked in our data.

Edges in this market don't linger all the way to kickoff. Historically, comparable mispricings have closed in roughly 29 hours as sharp money flows to the mispriced side.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Mushuc Runa vs Orense SC · Ecuadorian Serie A · Soccer — pick Mushuc Runa @ 1.93
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.0%
Entry edge
+2.0%
Edge near close
+0.3%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.89
Fair price (no-vig)
2.10
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
5
Sharp books
Prime pick
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Sharp price
Sizing
4.5%
Recommended stake
2.2%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
EV by devig methodthe same price run through every de-margining method
+5.0%
Shin
+5.0%
Power
+5.0%
Additive
-3.1%
Worst case
+5.0%
Multiplicative
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Bodog1.93+2.0%
Bovada1.93+2.0%
Heritage1.92+1.6%
Superbet1.92+1.6%
Betfair Exchange1.92+1.6%
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.92+1.6%
Betano1.91+1.1%
Betamapola1.91+1.1%
Fliff1.87-1.0%
Sportzino1.83-2.9%
BetDEX1.81-4.0%
Bet1051.80-4.7%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.93 odds → 52% implied win probability
53%
Fair win probability
+5.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+6.4% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
Proven Playbook matchesconditions are members-only
steam entry + home side 🔒 (Soccer) — +7.9% settled ROI on 40% winners
closing drift + liquid market 🔒 (Any) — +7.1% settled ROI on 43% winners
early value + short odds 🔒 (Any) — +4.7% settled ROI on 41% winners
consensus fade + late entry 🔒 (Any) — +4.1% settled ROI on 38% winners
Past performance

Based on 102 bets exactly like this one over the last 60 days

+7.9% 🔒
Closing line value
+8.6% 🔒
Average return
+3.6% 🔒
Beat the closing line
84%
Win rate
Likely ROI range: +3.1% to +4.4% 🔒
Statistically reliable winner: even the worst case is profitable
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Jul 20, 14:35 UTC at 2.10 (+5.0% edge) → fair price at close 1.90 → closing-line value +5.2%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.10 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Emelec vs SD Aucas is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).