UEFA Champions League · Soccer · Aug 05, 2026 20:00 CEST · avg book margin 6.8%

FenerbahcevsSturm Graz

Ended 2–0; the 5.3% mispriced Asian handicap at detection closed with +21.6% CLV

Offered at boomers2.45Fair price2.33+5.3% above fair

Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

Hours before the UEFA Champions League fixture between Fenerbahce and Sturm Graz commenced, the board surfaced an Asian handicap inefficiency at boomers: decimal odds of 2.45 priced one side 5.3% softer than sharp consensus. The edge retained sufficient liquidity to execute at detection.

Fenerbahce won 2–0. A flat 1-unit stake at the flagged price returned +1.45 units.

Outcome alone is unreliable. Between detection and kickoff, the market shifted +21.6% toward the flagged side—encoding the edge's validity in closing-line value rather than the scoreline. CLV is how professionals evaluate bets, because individual results are noisy but market repricing is not.

Across 1811 settled signals in soccer Asian handicap positions at this odds tier on the board, recorded ROI stands at +2.4%.

This analysis was generated before kickoff by the engine that surfaces mispricings every day. The live board publishes edges while they remain tradeable; once play begins, the window closes.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Fenerbahce vs Sturm Graz is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 07, 2026 07:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).