Brazilian Serie A · Soccer · Aug 08, 2026 20:30 -03

Coritiba FBCvsChapecoense AF

22-point edge sat on STN Sports for 8 minutes as market consensus shifted 22 points in 7 minutes

+40% window, 8 min55%73%91% market median STN Sports (slowest)

At 34 minutes elapsed in Coritiba FBC vs Chapecoense AF (Brazilian Serie A), the board read 1–0. The live market then repriced Coritiba FBC's win probability from 62% to 84% across 155+ bookmakers—a 22-point swing completed in 7 minutes flat. The repricing carried real information.

Speed fractured sharply among operators. 1xBet and Bally Bet moved in roughly 1 minute. Among the 131 books that adjusted, the median lag was 7 minutes. Three laggards: STN Sports, winpot, and William Hill each required 7 to 8 minutes to align.

That opening has sealed, revealing the full picture. For 8 minutes at detection, bettors positioned at STN Sports could have taken Coritiba FBC at a stale quote—capturing approximately 40% better value than the repriced consensus. A 22-point gap remained printed on the board during the entire lag.

Chasing the sharpest money into a repricing loses. The actual edge is elsewhere: identifying which operators systematically move last when new information arrives, then trading that pattern when it recurs. Our board tracks those exact delays, both pre-match and in-play.

Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. In-play prices move violently; markets adapt; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Coritiba FBC vs Chapecoense AF is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).