EFL Cup · Soccer · Aug 08, 2026 15:00 BST · avg book margin 7.5%

Fleetwood TownvsChesterfield

Fleetwood Town 1–0 Chesterfield: netbet's 15.3% pricing gap closed with the market, and the bet landed

Offered at netbet2.17Fair price1.88+15.3% above fair

Omenizer detected 3 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, netbet's Asian handicap pricing for the Fleetwood Town vs Chesterfield EFL Cup fixture diverged 15.3% from sharp consensus — available at 2.17 in decimal form. The inefficiency persisted long enough for execution.

Fleetwood Town won 1–0. The position paid out at +1.17 units per unit wagered.

Between detection and kickoff, the market repriced toward the flagged side, settling +0.0% better than entry (positive closing-line value). That directional shift—CLV—is what separates genuine edge detection from noise. Single outcomes scatter randomly; market movement during the executable window does not.

Across 1889 closed signals in soccer Asian handicap pricing at this odds band, the aggregate return is +2.8% ROI.

This page was written before kickoff by the detection engine. The live board surfaces edges during the window they remain actionable—not in retrospect.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Fleetwood Town vs Chesterfield is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 09, 2026 07:22 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).