WNBA · Basketball · Aug 09, 2026 15:30 EDT · avg book margin 5.8%
Minnesota LynxvsDallas Wings
Lynx–Wings moneyline shows 8.4% overquote at jackpot-bet versus sharp consensus, 23 hours to WNBA tipoff
What happened: Final score: 103–90. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-0.6% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 24 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 23.5 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—23 hours before Minnesota Lynx face Dallas Wings in WNBA play—the moneyline market fractures between jackpot-bet and a cluster of independent sharp operators. One bookmaker is quoting decimal odds of 3.85 on one side, representing an 8.4% premium above where professional sharp sources have converged on fair value. The pricing dislocation remains unresolved at detection.
The jackpot-bet quote deviates 2.3 standard deviations from the professional consensus cluster—a statistical separation that signals material disagreement rather than ordinary market variation.
Our Playbook flags 7 historical patterns congruent with this setup. The most robust variant has returned +22.7% ROI on settled wagers.
Bets matching this exact typology—basketball moneyline, odds in this range—have accumulated +6.9% ROI across 1427 settled wagers in our tracked sample.
Pricing discrepancies in this market segment have historically compressed within roughly 22 hours as sharper liquidity forces alignment with the consensus line.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks
· WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky
@ 2.08
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
BC.Game
2.08
+3.5%
betplay
2.08
+3.5%
rivalry
2.08
+3.5%
betwhale
2.08
+3.5%
Heritage Sports
2.04
+1.6%
Betway
2.00
-0.4%
FanDuel
2.00
-0.4%
Bet99
1.95
-2.8%
espn-bet
1.95
-2.8%
theScore
1.95
-2.8%
DraftKings
1.95
-2.8%
BetRight
1.94
-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Minnesota Lynx vs Dallas Wings
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 09, 2026 21:42 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).