WNBA · Basketball · Aug 09, 2026 12:30 EDT

New York LibertyvsLas Vegas Aces

A 24-point moneyline gap sat at partypoker for 71 minutes, offering bettors roughly 46% value over consensus

+46% window, 71 min49%67%85% market median partypoker (slowest)

Nineteen hours before tip-off, at 21:30 UTC, the moneyline market for New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces (WNBA) shifted across 75+ bookmakers. New York Liberty's implied probability jumped from 54% to 78% in under an hour—a move too sharp to be random. That speed signals conviction.

Repricing unfolds unevenly. Early responders like 888sport and BC.Game moved within 31 minutes. Half the tracked books (61 total) took a median 51 minutes. Play Alberta, the most sluggish, didn't adjust for 151 minutes.

Three sportsbooks lagged longest: partypoker, bwin, and Betr AU each held their stale price for 71 minutes. During that span, bettors betting New York Liberty at partypoker's pre-shift odds enjoyed roughly 46% better value than the post-shift consensus line, all while a 24-point gap persisted.

Five books were still quoting outdated prices well into the afternoon. A stale quote is the core of what the board identifies: when fast money has moved the consensus and a sportsbook hasn't yet caught on, its obsolete odds are a detectable edge.

Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks · WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky @ 2.08
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.9%
Entry edge
+3.5%
Edge near close
+1.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.01
Fair price (no-vig)
2.12
Entry odds
Quality
85/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
2.6%
Recommended stake
3.3%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
BC.Game2.08+3.5%
betplay2.08+3.5%
rivalry2.08+3.5%
betwhale2.08+3.5%
Heritage Sports2.04+1.6%
Betway2.00-0.4%
FanDuel2.00-0.4%
Bet991.95-2.8%
espn-bet1.95-2.8%
theScore1.95-2.8%
DraftKings1.95-2.8%
BetRight1.94-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).