Swedish Superettan · Soccer · Aug 10, 2026 19:00 CEST

NorrbyvsÖrebro

BetUS quotes 19.8% softer than sharp consensus on 1X2, 32 hours to kickoff

What happened: Final score: 3–1. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.43 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +1.0% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 47 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Offered at BetUS2.90Fair price2.42+19.8% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 32 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

The 1X2 (match result) market for Norrby vs Örebro (Swedish Superettan) shows splintering across sportsbooks at detection—32 hours before the match begins. BetUS prices one outcome at decimal odds of 2.90, sitting 19.8% below the sharp consensus line. The gap is measurable and active, not retrospective.

BetUS's quote lands 3.7 standard deviations outside the cluster of competing books—a structural dislocation rather than routine volatility.

The consensus line draws from 3 independent sharp operators, so the theoretical fair value underlying this edge is not anchored to any single professional's view.

Our Playbook identifies 6 historical patterns congruent with this setup. The top performer in that cohort has closed at +9.4% ROI.

Soccer 1X2 (match result) edges at mid-range odds have a recorded track record: across 3105 settled bets in this segment, cumulative ROI stands at +4.0%.

Dislocations of this magnitude have historically tightened in roughly 36 hours as competing books and sharper capital move toward equilibrium.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Norrby vs Örebro is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 10, 2026 19:04 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).