UEFA Champions League · Soccer · Aug 11, 2026 17:00 CEST

Kairat AlmatyvsPFK Levski Sofia

PFK Levski Sofia gained 6 points in the draw-no-bet market, and theScore sat 71 minutes behind

6pp window, 71 min44%50%55% market median theScore (slowest)

Two hours before kickoff, at 13:30 UTC, the draw-no-bet odds shifted across 85+ bookmakers in UEFA Champions League play. Kairat Almaty's implied win probability fell from 54% to 47% in under an hour—a move of this magnitude rarely occurs by chance. When the market reprices this sharply, money with conviction is moving.

Not all books moved together. Overtime Markets and Sportsbet were among the first to adjust, responding within roughly 58 minutes. The median sportsbook took 71 minutes to catch up. Of the 76 books that eventually repriced, theScore was among those trailing the pack at 71 minutes.

The laggards: theScore (71 min), partypoker (71 min), ibet (71 min). Once the window closed, the edge became clear. Bettors holding information had approximately 71 minutes at theScore to back PFK Levski Sofia at its pre-shift price—while the market consensus had already moved 6 points away.

Hours after the repricing, 9 bookmakers were still showing the old quotes. This lag is where the board's real value sits: when sophisticated money has already repositioned and a sportsbook hasn't noticed, that stale price becomes a flaggable opportunity.

Historical, aggregate market data — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Kairat Almaty vs PFK Levski Sofia is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Live market record · data refreshes with this page · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).