Mexican Liga de Expansión MX · Soccer · Aug 13, 2026 19:00 CST · avg book margin 8.3%

Alebrijes de OaxacavsTepatitlán FC

Asian handicap: sportzino quotes 5.1% above sharp consensus at 2.00, 5 hours before kickoff

What happened: Final score: 1–0. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.18 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +7.6% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 60 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán FC — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at sportzino2.00Fair price1.90+5.1% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 666 live signals across 275 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 5.3 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

Mexican Liga de Expansión MX's Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán FC matchup has exposed a pricing fracture in the Asian handicap market. At detection—5 hours before kickoff—sportzino is quoting decimal odds of 2.00 on one side, a 5.1% premium over where sharp operators have anchored consensus fair value. The gap is material and actionable.

The sportzino quote sits 4.6 standard deviations from the consensus cluster, marking genuine structural mispricing rather than routine market chop.

Three independent sharp sources converge on the consensus estimate, so fair value reflects distributed professional judgment, not any single operator's pricing model.

This signal aligns with 1 historically profitable pattern from our Playbook—the strongest variant has posted +22.7% cumulative return on settled bets.

Bets of this type have performed: across 1958 settled soccer Asian handicap signals in the mid-odds range tracked on our board, ROI has averaged +2.2%.

Pricing edges in this market segment typically persist for roughly 13 hours before sharps arbitrage them away.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán FC is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 14, 2026 03:10 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).