Mexican Liga de Expansión MX · Soccer · Aug 13, 2026 19:00 CST · avg book margin 8.9%

Alebrijes de OaxacavsTepatitlán FC

Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–0 Tepatitlán: 5.7% mispricing flagged at detection, market tightened into kickoff with positive closing-line value

How it ended, price by price: Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán FC — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at SportsBetting.ag2.18Fair price2.06+5.7% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 666 live signals across 275 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, the Asian handicap board showed SportsBetting.ag pricing Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán FC (Mexican Liga de Expansión MX) at decimal 2.18—a 5.7% deviation above the sharp consensus. The edge surfaced before the match began, and bettors executing during the window locked in that price.

Alebrijes won 1–0. The wager returned +1.18 units on a 1-unit stake.

The metric that compounds long-term is closing-line value. Between detection and kickoff, the market repriced +7.6% toward the flagged side—a visible shift that confirms the inefficiency was real. Professionals measure edges by market repricing, not by match outcomes, because CLV builds across many bets while results remain statistical noise.

Across 1962 settled detections in this category—soccer Asian handicap, mid-range odds tier—the aggregate return has been +2.4% ROI.

This page was generated at detection by the same engine that surfaces mispricings each day before kickoff, then records the result once the match settles. The live board displays each signal only while the execution window remains open.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs Tepatitlán FC is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 14, 2026 10:09 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).