French Ligue 2 · Soccer · Aug 14, 2026 18:45 UTC

NancyvsMontpellier

5.9% mispricing at detection, market repriced toward the flagged side before kickoff — the closing-line edge held despite the loss

Offered at DraftKings3.05Fair price2.88+5.9% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, our board caught a pricing divergence in the Nancy vs Montpellier (French Ligue 2) 1X2 market: DraftKings quoted decimal 3.05, sitting 5.9% above the sharp consensus. The inefficiency remained capturable through kickoff.

Montpellier won 1–0. The flagged position lost — and that is exactly why we track closing-line value instead of single outcomes.

Between detection and kickoff, the market shifted +1.7% in favor of the flagged side. This repricing is closing-line value, and it is what professionals measure: CLV compounds across many bets while individual results oscillate around the underlying edge.

Soccer 1X2 signals at this odds range have produced +4.1% ROI across 3241 settled detections on our board.

Detection occurs before kickoff through the same engine that flags inefficiencies every day. The live board displays them while execution remains available.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Nancy vs Montpellier is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
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Record settled · last updated Aug 15, 2026 10:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).