WNBA · Basketball · Aug 15, 2026 13:00 EDT · avg book margin 5.2%

Connecticut SunvsNew York Liberty

4cx moneyline sits 5.3% above sharp consensus, 15 hours to tip-off

What happened: Final score: 75–82. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-11.2% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 15 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Connecticut Sun vs New York Liberty — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at 4cx3.89Fair price3.70+5.3% above fair

Omenizer detected 14 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 15.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection—15 hours before Connecticut Sun vs New York Liberty (WNBA)—one bookmaker's moneyline quote has drifted into misalignment with the professional consensus. 4cx is offering decimal odds of 3.89 on one side, a 5.3% overshoot from where sharp operators have converged. The mispricing window remains open for action.

The 4cx quote sits 2.9 standard deviations beyond the consensus cluster—a structural fracture, not random daily wobble.

Four independent sharp sources converge on the consensus fair value, anchoring this reference point in distributed professional judgment rather than a single operator's model.

This pattern has resolved profitably in the past: basketball moneyline signals at mid-range odds have posted +6.5% ROI across 1435 settled bets in our archive.

Edges in this market segment historically close within roughly 23 hours from detection, so the pricing dislocation carries a defined lifespan before sharps arbitrage it away.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks · WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky @ 2.08
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.9%
Entry edge
+3.5%
Edge near close
+1.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.01
Fair price (no-vig)
2.12
Entry odds
Quality
85/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
2.6%
Recommended stake
3.3%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
BC.Game2.08+3.5%
betplay2.08+3.5%
rivalry2.08+3.5%
betwhale2.08+3.5%
Heritage Sports2.04+1.6%
Betway2.00-0.4%
FanDuel2.00-0.4%
Bet991.95-2.8%
espn-bet1.95-2.8%
theScore1.95-2.8%
DraftKings1.95-2.8%
BetRight1.94-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Connecticut Sun vs New York Liberty is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 15, 2026 19:02 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).