Polish Ekstraklasa · Soccer · Aug 16, 2026 17:30 CEST · avg book margin 7.9%
CracoviavsRaków Częstochowa
Draw-no-bet at Duel runs 6.9% soft to sharp consensus, 7 hours before kickoff
What happened: Final score: 2–1. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.00 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The closing line moved against the signal (-29.1% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 6 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 666 live signals across 275 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 6.8 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—7 hours before Cracovia faces Raków Częstochowa in the Polish Ekstraklasa—Duel has quoted draw-no-bet decimal odds of 2.00 on one side, a level sitting 6.9% beneath the consensus fair value assembled by independent sharp operators. The mispricing is accessible as of writing; it represents a tradeable market gap, not post-match hindsight.
This quote deviates 3.4 standard deviations from the cluster where other bookmakers have anchored their pricing—a statistical outlier well beyond routine market variation.
The consensus benchmark rests on 3 independent sharp sources, so the fair value is grounded in distributed professional judgment rather than any single operator's model.
Dislocations of this magnitude do not survive to kickoff. Historical data suggests comparable edges in this market segment have typically closed within approximately 33 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
· UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe
@ 1.98
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Matchbook
2.10
+9.2%
BetOnline
1.98
+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag
1.98
+2.9%
Betr AU
1.93
+0.1%
BC.Game
1.91
-0.8%
betplay
1.91
-0.8%
rivalry
1.91
-0.8%
betwhale
1.91
-0.8%
Jazz Sports
1.91
-0.8%
Coolbet
1.90
-1.2%
SX.bet
1.88
-2.4%
betmania
1.88
-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Cracovia vs Raków Częstochowa
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 16, 2026 17:41 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).