WNBA · Basketball · Aug 16, 2026 19:00 EDT · avg book margin 5.1%
Phoenix MercuryvsPortland Fire
Mercury–Fire moneyline: Rushbet's 2.88 decimal sits 3.7% above sharp consensus, 11 hours to tip
What happened: Final score: 85–88. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.88 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +3.8% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 11 hours after detection before the edge closed.
Omenizer detected 53 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 11 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
At detection—11 hours before Phoenix Mercury take on Portland Fire in the WNBA—a moneyline gap has opened between Rushbet and the consensus built by independent sharp operators. Rushbet's decimal odds of 2.88 price one outcome 3.7% above the fair value those professionals have converged on. The mispricing is accessible at writing; it is a tradeable market dislocation, not post-game analysis.
That consensus fair line derives from 5 independent sharp sources, meaning the benchmark reflects distributed professional judgment rather than any single book's model.
One historically profitable pattern in our Playbook encompasses this signal—its strongest iteration has posted +10.8% ROI on settled bets.
Settled bets in this category—WNBA moneyline at mid-range odds—have accumulated +6.6% ROI across 1437 tracked wagers, establishing a record for how such mispricings have closed.
Dislocations of this magnitude do not persist to tip-off. Historical patterns show comparable edges in this market segment have typically compressed toward consensus within roughly 23 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks
· WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky
@ 2.08
92Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
BC.Game
2.08
+3.5%
betplay
2.08
+3.5%
rivalry
2.08
+3.5%
betwhale
2.08
+3.5%
Heritage Sports
2.04
+1.6%
Betway
2.00
-0.4%
FanDuel
2.00
-0.4%
Bet99
1.95
-2.8%
espn-bet
1.95
-2.8%
theScore
1.95
-2.8%
DraftKings
1.95
-2.8%
BetRight
1.94
-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Phoenix Mercury vs Portland Fire
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 17, 2026 01:32 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).