WNBA · Basketball · Aug 18, 2026 21:00 EDT · avg book margin 5.1%

Chicago SkyvsNew York Liberty

1xBet quoting Sky moneyline 5.0% above sharp consensus, 23 hours to tipoff

What happened: Final score: 93–86. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.84 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +33.8% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 46 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Chicago Sky vs New York Liberty — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at 1xBet2.63Fair price2.50+5.0% above fair

Omenizer detected 4 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 23.3 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection—23 hours before Chicago Sky meet New York Liberty in WNBA action—a moneyline gap has opened at 1xBet. The book's decimal odds of 2.63 price one outcome 5.0% above the consensus fair value that independent sharp operators have assembled. The dislocation is accessible at writing; it marks a tradeable market gap, not hindsight analysis.

That outlier quote sits 2.9 standard deviations removed from the cluster where competing sportsbooks have anchored their pricing—a statistical separation well beyond routine market variation.

The consensus benchmark draws from 4 independent sharp sources, so the fair value rests on distributed professional judgment rather than any single operator's model.

This signal aligns with 1 historically profitable pattern in our Playbook—the strongest pattern in this category has realized +15.8% on settled wagers.

Comparable mispricings have resolved before: basketball moneyline signals at mid-range odds have accumulated +6.7% ROI across 1440 settled bets tracked on our board.

Dislocations of this magnitude do not linger to tipoff. Historical patterns suggest comparable edges in this market segment have typically compressed toward consensus within roughly 23 hours from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks · WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky @ 2.08
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.9%
Entry edge
+3.5%
Edge near close
+1.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.01
Fair price (no-vig)
2.12
Entry odds
Quality
85/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
2.6%
Recommended stake
3.3%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
BC.Game2.08+3.5%
betplay2.08+3.5%
rivalry2.08+3.5%
betwhale2.08+3.5%
Heritage Sports2.04+1.6%
Betway2.00-0.4%
FanDuel2.00-0.4%
Bet991.95-2.8%
espn-bet1.95-2.8%
theScore1.95-2.8%
DraftKings1.95-2.8%
BetRight1.94-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Chicago Sky vs New York Liberty is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

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Record settled · last updated Aug 19, 2026 03:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).