WNBA · Basketball · Aug 18, 2026 19:00 EDT · avg book margin 4.9%

Connecticut SunvsLos Angeles Sparks

Betano's 2.35 moneyline sits 3.8% above sharp consensus, 6 hours to tip-off

What happened: Final score: 85–77. The edge paid: the flagged side won, returning +1.35 units on a flat 1-unit stake. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +4.1% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 6 hours after detection before the edge closed.

How it ended, price by price: Connecticut Sun vs Los Angeles Sparks — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at Betano2.35Fair price2.26+3.8% above fair

Omenizer detected 17 bookmakers pricing this bet above the no-vig fair near close — this story covers one of them. Members see the full board, live.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 5.6 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection—6 hours before Connecticut Sun takes on Los Angeles Sparks (WNBA)—the moneyline market reveals a pricing fracture. Betano has posted decimal odds of 2.35 on one side, a level that sits 3.8% above the consensus sharp pricing. The gap is live and measurable; this mispricing exists at detection, not in retrospect.

Betano's quote registers 3.1 standard deviations from the cluster where the wider market has anchored itself—a distance that signals genuine disagreement rather than ordinary daily variance between books.

The consensus fair value draws from 5 independent sharp sources, so the benchmark does not rest on one operator's model alone.

This setup overlaps 1 historically profitable pattern from the Playbook; that pattern's best instance has delivered +10.2% ROI on settled bets.

The track record is direct: across 1441 settled bets in basketball moneyline at mid-range odds, comparable mispricings have compounded to +6.6% cumulative ROI when edges of this shape have triggered.

Mispricings at this magnitude do not linger to tip-off. In this market segment, comparable edges have historically corrected toward consensus within about 24 hours from detection.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Chicago Sky vs Los Angeles Sparks · WNBA · Basketball — flagged side Chicago Sky @ 2.08
92 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+2.9%
Entry edge
+3.5%
Edge near close
+1.1%
Risk-adjusted edge
2.01
Fair price (no-vig)
2.12
Entry odds
Quality
85/100
Confidence
3
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
2.6%
Recommended stake
3.3%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
BC.Game2.08+3.5%
betplay2.08+3.5%
rivalry2.08+3.5%
betwhale2.08+3.5%
Heritage Sports2.04+1.6%
Betway2.00-0.4%
FanDuel2.00-0.4%
Bet991.95-2.8%
espn-bet1.95-2.8%
theScore1.95-2.8%
DraftKings1.95-2.8%
BetRight1.94-3.3%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
2.08 odds → 48% implied win probability
50%
Fair win probability
+7.1% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+3.0% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 05, 03:20 UTC at 2.12 (+2.9% edge) → fair price at close 2.02 → closing-line value +1.8%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.12 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for Connecticut Sun vs Los Angeles Sparks is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

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Record settled · last updated Aug 19, 2026 01:11 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).