Copa Sudamericana · Soccer · Aug 19, 2026 21:30 -03 · avg book margin 7.3%
Montevideo City TorquevsTigre
Draw-no-bet at Duel trades 6.5% soft to sharp consensus, 8 hours to kickoff
What happened: Final score: 2–1. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The closing line moved against the signal (-26.8% CLV) — honest note: on this one, the market did not confirm the edge. For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 6 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 8.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
Copa Sudamericana's Montevideo City Torque vs Tigre fixture has fractured the draw-no-bet market across sportsbooks. At detection — 8 hours before kickoff — Duel is quoting decimal odds of 1.78 on one side, a level 6.5% below the fair value that independent sharp sources have anchored on. This is market dislocation in real time, not retrospective analysis.
When operators diverge this widely on the same contract, one side is trading at a disadvantage. The sharp consensus reveals which one. The spread signals genuine disagreement about the underlying proposition.
The fair-value benchmark rests on analysis from 3 independent sharp sources, so the edge reflects distributed professional judgment rather than a single operator's private model.
This signal aligns with 2 historically profitable patterns from our database. The stronger pattern has returned +16.2% cumulative ROI across all settled bets matching its criteria.
Soccer draw-no-bet at these odds carries a track record: across 1366 settled bets in this exact segment, cumulative ROI has reached +6.2% when comparable edges have triggered.
Mispricings of this magnitude do not typically survive to kickoff. Historical patterns in this market segment suggest comparable edges compress toward consensus within roughly 29 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
· UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe
@ 1.98
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Matchbook
2.10
+9.2%
BetOnline
1.98
+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag
1.98
+2.9%
Betr AU
1.93
+0.1%
BC.Game
1.91
-0.8%
betplay
1.91
-0.8%
rivalry
1.91
-0.8%
betwhale
1.91
-0.8%
Jazz Sports
1.91
-0.8%
Coolbet
1.90
-1.2%
SX.bet
1.88
-2.4%
betmania
1.88
-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for Montevideo City Torque vs Tigre
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 20, 2026 02:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).