Draw-no-bet: FanDuel's 2.16 decimal sits 5.0% soft to sharp consensus, 30 hours before kickoff
What happened: Final score: 1–3. This one lost. A real edge is a long-run average, not a per-bet promise — we publish every outcome either way. The market agreed with the signal: the price closed +6.6% better than where the edge was flagged (positive closing-line value — the strongest sign the edge was real). For the record: the flagged price stayed live for about 18 hours after detection before the edge closed.
This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.
The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written 30.1 hours before start and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.
The draw-no-bet market for NEC Nijmegen vs Bodø/Glimt (UEFA Champions League) shows separation between FanDuel and independent sharp operators, 30 hours from kickoff. At FanDuel, decimal odds of 2.16 represent a 5.0% deviation below the sharp consensus—a measurable gap that exists at detection, not in retrospect.
FanDuel's quote sits 4.1 standard deviations from the cluster where the rest of the market has anchored itself, a distance that signals genuine disagreement rather than the ordinary daily drift between books.
The consensus fair value derives from 2 independent sharp sources, anchoring the benchmark in professional pricing rather than a single operator's model.
Mispricings in this market segment do not typically endure through kickoff. Comparable edges at this scale have historically compressed toward fair value within roughly 31 hours from detection.
Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.
AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW
· what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different,
already-settled matchPRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz
· UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe
@ 1.98
99Omen Score
This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal.
The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed,
so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked
🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
Bookmaker
Odds
Vs fair
Matchbook
2.10
+9.2%
BetOnline
1.98
+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag
1.98
+2.9%
Betr AU
1.93
+0.1%
BC.Game
1.91
-0.8%
betplay
1.91
-0.8%
rivalry
1.91
-0.8%
betwhale
1.91
-0.8%
Jazz Sports
1.91
-0.8%
Coolbet
1.90
-1.2%
SX.bet
1.88
-2.4%
betmania
1.88
-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim
(read this signal's full story).
The live breakdown for NEC Nijmegen vs Bodø/Glimt
is on the member board now ·
unlock with Pro
Record settled · last updated Aug 19, 2026 21:01 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).