UEFA Champions League · Soccer · Aug 19, 2026 21:00 CEST · avg book margin 7.9%

NEC NijmegenvsBodø/Glimt

Bodø/Glimt's 5.4% overpriced draw-no-bet at FanDuel cashed 1–3 at NEC Nijmegen, with closing line validating the signal

How it ended, price by price: NEC Nijmegen vs Bodø/Glimt — full match recap with closing odds

Offered at FanDuel2.06Fair price1.95+5.4% above fair

This story covers a single signal — right now the member board has 662 live signals across 274 matches, found the same way.

The setup — the analysis as published at detection, written before the game and frozen for the record. The market it describes has since closed; the outcome is above.

At detection, the draw-no-bet market in NEC Nijmegen vs Bodø/Glimt (UEFA Champions League) showed a pricing gap: FanDuel's decimal 2.06 stood 5.4% above the sharp consensus. Our board surfaced this inefficiency before kickoff, creating a brief execution window for bettors willing to take that price.

The match ended 1–3 for the flagged outcome. A 1-unit flat stake on the identified side returned +1.06 units.

What separates edge from noise: closing-line value. From detection to kickoff, the market shifted +8.8% in the direction of the flagged side—repricing that professionals track across settlement records because individual games are binary but pricing movement is systematic.

This detection was generated before kickoff by the algorithm that scans for market inefficiencies daily. The live board surfaces flagged edges while execution windows remain open, not in retrospect after the score is set.

Historical, aggregate data on settled bets — not betting advice and not a guarantee. Markets adapt; edges fade; variance is real.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE MEMBER VIEW · what members see on a bet like this — shown for a different, already-settled match PRO
Fenerbahçe vs Sturm Graz · UEFA Champions League · Soccer — flagged side Fenerbahçe @ 1.98
99 Omen Score

This is the complete breakdown members get for every live signal. The example below is a DIFFERENT match, already settled — its market is closed, so full disclosure costs nothing. Everything is real except values marked 🔒, which are members-only (decoy digits shown).

Why this bet
+5.3%
Entry edge
+2.9%
Edge near close
+0.4%
Risk-adjusted edge
1.92
Fair price (no-vig)
2.45
Entry odds
Quality
95/100
Confidence
7
Sharp books
Prime signal
Class
Market state: Strong sharp consensus (3+ books) · priced from: Market consensus (no-vig)
Sizing
3.7%
Recommended stake
3.0%
Full Kelly (theoretical max)
Insights
High confidence + meaningful price gap — best risk-adjusted segment.
A sample of bookmakers on this betnear close — every price against the same no-vig fair
BookmakerOddsVs fair
Matchbook2.10+9.2%
BetOnline1.98+2.9%
SportsBetting.ag1.98+2.9%
Betr AU1.93+0.1%
BC.Game1.91-0.8%
betplay1.91-0.8%
rivalry1.91-0.8%
betwhale1.91-0.8%
Jazz Sports1.91-0.8%
Coolbet1.90-1.2%
SX.bet1.88-2.4%
betmania1.88-2.4%
Risk & profitability profile
Heavy favoriteFavoriteCoin flipUnderdogLongshot
1.98 odds → 50% implied win probability
52%
Fair win probability
+3.9% 🔒
Expected ROI (model)
+4.8% 🔒
Cohort realized ROI
The endingthe part only a settled signal can show
Detected Aug 02, 03:51 UTC at 2.45 (+5.3% edge) → fair price at close 1.91 → closing-line value +21.6%
✅ Settled: WON · +1.45 units
A real, settled example — not a typical-results claim (read this signal's full story). The live breakdown for NEC Nijmegen vs Bodø/Glimt is on the member board now · unlock with Pro
See the live board — free account

The strategies behind signals like this · More stories

Record settled · last updated Aug 20, 2026 10:31 UTC · How these numbers are made: methodology · the dataset — fair prices shown are margin-free. Spotted an error? Request a correction (include this page's URL).